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:: Volume 12, Issue 48 (Spring 1395 2016) ::
QEER 2016, 12(48): 143-172 Back to browse issues page
An Assessment of the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuatiouns on the Value Added of Main Sectors of Iran’s Economy
سعیده آفرینش فر
, rshahnazi@shirazu.ac.ir
Abstract:   (1878 Views)

Abstract

Oil revenue fluctuations and Dutch disease (i.e. development of the non-traded services sector at the expense of traded sectors of agriculture and industry) are two manifestations of the resource curse.  In this article we study the resource curse in Iran through looking at the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the industry and mines, agriculture and services sectors of the Iranian economy over the period 1973 to 2011.

We first estimate oil price fluctuations through use of the GARCH model.  We then use an ARDL model to estimate the short and long term impact of oil price fluctuations on the value added of the industry, agriculture and services sectors. We use an ECM model to assess the relationship between short and long term changes. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations negatively impact the agriculture and industry sectors and have positive effects on the services sector.

JEL Classification : C22, Q31, Q32

Keywords: oil price fluctuation, agriculture, industry, services, GARCH
Full-Text [PDF 671 kb]   (1171 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Oil-Market
Received: 2015/01/13 | Accepted: 2016/04/9 | Published: 2016/06/21
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آفرینش فر س. An Assessment of the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuatiouns on the Value Added of Main Sectors of Iran’s Economy. QEER. 2016; 12 (48) :143-172
URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-478-en.html


Volume 12, Issue 48 (Spring 1395 2016) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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