Quarterely Energy Economics Review
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تحلیل اقتصادسنجی تقاضای نفت گاز در زیربخش حمل و نقل جادهای- مقایسه رهیافت همانباشتگی و STSM
Econometric Analysis of Gasoil Demand in Road Transportation Subsector- A Comparison of Cointegration and STSM Approaches
اقتصاد انرژي
Energy Economic
پژوهشي
Research
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<p dir="rtl" class="02"><font size="6"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">تحلیل
اقتصادسنجی تقاضای نفت گاز در زیربخش حمل و نقل جادهای-</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span>
</span><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">مقایسه رهیافت همانباشتگی
و </span><span dir="ltr">STSM</span><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></b></font></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed" dir="rtl" class="04"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">حمید آماده؛ استادیار
دانشکدهی اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span>
</span></b><span dir="ltr"><b>amadeh@gmail.com</b><span><b> </b> </span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="05"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">تاریخ دریافت:
28/04</span><span class="04Char"><span lang="FA">/</span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">91<span> </span><span> </span>تاریخ پذیرش: 25/06/92</span><span dir="ltr"></span></p>
<h1 dir="rtl"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">چکیده </span></h1>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">یارانهای بودن قیمت </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">حاملها</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ی انرژی در کشور شده است تا
مصرف این منابع در سالهای گذشته بهویژه در بخش حمل و نقل افزایش قابل توجهی
داشته باشد. با اجرای طرح هدفمندسازی یارانهها، افزایش قیمت </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">حاملها</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ی انرژی از جمله گازوئیل
مدنظر قرار گرفته است. برای بررسی اثرات اقتصادی این افزایش لازم است واکنش مصرف
انرژی به تغییرات قیمتی الگوسازی شود. در این مقاله به برآورد تابع تقاضای نفت گاز
در زیر بخش حمل و نقل جادهای کشور پرداخته شده است. برای الگوسازی تابع تقاضای
نفت گاز از تکنیکهای مختلف اقتصادسنجی از جمله الگوی لگاریتمی، همانباشتگی
یوهانسن، رهیافت </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">ARDL</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> و الگوی سریهای
زمانی ساختاری (</span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">STSM</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>) استفاده و
نتایج حاصل مقایسه شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که تقاضای گازوئیل از نظر قیمتی بیکشش
است. کشش قیمتی و درآمدی تقاضای انرژی در بلندمدت به ترتیب 0.5- و 0.93 برآورد شده
است. کششهای برآورد شده از تکنیکهای مختلف تفاوت چندانی با هم ندارند. همچنین
نتایج </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">STSM</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> نشان میدهد
که اولا ماهیت روند تقاضای نفت گاز تصادفی نیست و ثانیا این روش نسبت به رهیافت همانباشتگی،
کششهای قیمتی را کمتر برآورد میکند. بر این اساس برای کاهش مصرف نفت گاز در
زیربخش حمل و نقل جادهای تکیه بر </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">سیاستها</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ی
قیمتی صرف نمیتواند راهگشا باشد. </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr"></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">طبقهبندی </span></b><b><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">JEL</span></b><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>:</span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""> </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">C22</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>، </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">Q41</span><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></b></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">کلید واژه: </span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">همانباشتگی،
کشش قیمتی، نفت گاز، حمل و نقل جادهای، </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">ARDL</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>، </span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">STSM</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>.</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="02"><b>Econometric
Analysis of Gasoil Demand in Road Transportation Subsector- <span>A
Comparison of Cointegration and STSM Approaches.</span></b></p>
<p class="04">Hamid
Amadeh,Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allame Tabatab’i
University,<a href="mailto:amadeh@gmail.com"><span style="color: windowtext text-decoration: none">amadeh@gmail.com</span></a><span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 34pt text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="05">Received: 2012/07/18<span> </span><span> </span>Accepted: 2013/06/16</p>
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<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Abstract</h1>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span lang="EN-GB">Subsidized energy carriers’
prices has lead to increasing demand for them specially in transport sector.
Due to enforcement of targeting subsidies plan, price of energy carriers and
also gasoil price will increase. Economic analysis of this increase need to
modeling energy consumption reaction to price changes. In this paper gasoil
demand function has been estimated for Iranian road transport subsector. For
modeling the gasoil demand function Engle-Granger, Johansen and ARDL cointegration
approaches and structural time series modeling (STSM) has been used. Results
showed that gasoil demand is price inelastic. Price and Income elasticities of
gasoil demand has been estimated -0.5 and 0.93 respectively. Estimated
elasticities throught different techniques are not very different. Besides STSM
results showed that gasoil underlying demand trend isn’t stochastic and
estimated elasticities by STSM are lower than cointegration approaches. Because
gasoil demand is price inelastic, in order to reducing gasoil demand, relying
on price policies would not be effective. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span class="04Char"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 8pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"">JEL Classification:</span></span><span class="04Char"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 8pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif""> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB">C22, Q41</span><span class="04Char"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 8pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif""></span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span class="04Char"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 8pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"">Keywords:</span></span><span lang="EN-GB">
Cointegration, Price Elasticity, Gasoil, Road Transport, ARDL, STSM.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span lang="EN-GB"><span> </span></span></p>
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همانباشتگی, کشش قیمتی, نفت گاز, حمل و نقل جادهای, ARDL, STSM.
Cointegration, Price Elasticity, Gasoil, Road Transport, ARDL, STSM.
51
75
http://iiesj.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-4&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Amadeh
حمید
آماده
1003194753284600971
1003194753284600971
Yes
دانشگاه علامه