Quarterely Energy Economics Review
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژي
QEER
Literature & Humanities
http://iiesj.ir
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رابطهی میان مصرف انرژی و توسعهی مالی در ایران
The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Financial Development in Iran
اقتصاد انرژي
Energy Economic
پژوهشي
Research
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<p dir="rtl" class="02"><font size="6"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">رابطهی میان
مصرف انرژی و توسعهی مالی در ایران</span></b></font></p>
</p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed" dir="rtl" class="04"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">پرویز
محمدزاده</span><a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 1pt font-family: "B Mitra""><span dir="ltr"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 1pt font-family: BNazanin">[1]</span></b></span></span></span></span></a><sup><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">*</span></sup><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">استادیار
دانشکدهی اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی دانشگاه تبریز<span> </span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span style="font-family: "TimesNewRomanPSMT","serif"" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span> </span>pmohamadzadeh@yahoo.com</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed" dir="rtl" class="04"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Mitra"">داود بهبودی؛ دانشیار
دانشکدهی اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگا</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">نی دانشگاه </span><a href="mailto:تبریزdbehboudi@gmail.com"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin" color: windowtext text-decoration: none">تبریز</span></a><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span> </span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span> </span></span><span dir="ltr"><a href="mailto:dbehboudi@tabrizu.ac.ir"><span style="color: windowtext text-decoration: none">dbehboudi@tabrizu.ac.ir</span></a></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14pt font-family: "B Mitra""></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed" dir="rtl" class="04"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">سعید ابراهیمی؛ دانشجوی
دکترای علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه تبریز </span><a href="mailto:ebrahimi.ut@gmail.com"><span style="font-family: "TimesNewRomanPSMT","serif" color: windowtext text-decoration: none" dir="ltr">ebrahimi.ut@gmail.com</span></a><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="05"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">تاریخ دریافت:
23/05</span><span class="04Char"><span lang="FA">/</span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">91<span> </span><span> </span>تاریخ پذیرش: 23/06/92</span><span dir="ltr"></span></p>
<h1 dir="rtl"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin""> </span></h1>
<h1 dir="rtl"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">چکیده</span></h1>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">انرژی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">به</span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">عنوان</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">یکی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">از</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">مهمترین</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">عوامل</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">تولید</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">و</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">همچنین</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">یکی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">از</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ضروری</span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ترین</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">محصولات</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span>
</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">نهایی، جایگاه</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span>
</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">ویژهای</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">در</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">رشد</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">و</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">توسعهی </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">اقتصادی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">کشورها</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span>
</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">داراست، توسعهی مالی نیز به</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Arshia""></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">عنوان
یکی از عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی شناخته شده است که میتواند از راههای مختلف بر
مصرف انرژی تأثیرگذار باشد. در این مقاله رابطهی علی کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت میان
مصرف انرژی، </span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">توسعهی </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">مالی،
تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و جمعیت شهرنشین در ایران، براساس مدل</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt" dir="ltr">ARDL</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">و در چارچوب مدل </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt" dir="ltr">VECM</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> طی دورهی 1387-1350 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته
است. بهدلیل احتمال وجود شکست ساختاری در سریهای زمانی از روش زیوت- اندریوز
برای آزمون ریشهی واحد متغیرها استفاده شده و نتایج نشان داده است که همهی
متغیرها شرط اولیهی مدل </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt" dir="ltr">ARDL</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> را تأمین میکنند. نتایج آزمون </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt" dir="ltr">F</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> و آزمون همانباشتگی
گریگوری- هانسن، وجود رابطهی بلندمدت میان متغیرها را تأیید میکند. نتایج
بلندمدت حاصل از برآورد مدل </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11pt" dir="ltr">ARDL</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> حاکی از تأثیر مثبت توسعهی مالی، تولید
ناخالص داخلی</span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="FA" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span> </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">سرانه
و جمعیت شهرنشین بر مصرف انرژی در دورهی مورد بررسی است. نتایج آزمون علیت نشان
میدهد که رابطهی علی دوطرفهای میان توسعهی مالی و مصرف انرژی و نیز جمعیت
شهرنشین و مصرف انرژی در بلندمدت و همچنین رابطهی علی یکطرفهای در بلندمدت و
کوتاهمدت از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه به مصرف انرژی وجود دارد. </span></p>
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<p dir="rtl" class="MsoFootnoteText"><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt" dir="ltr"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span dir="rtl"></span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 10pt"><span dir="rtl"></span>*- <span> </span>نویسنده مسئول</span></span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt"></span></span></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 18pt text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="02">The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Financial
Development in Iran</p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="03">Parviz
Mohamadzadeh<a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt font-weight: normal"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup>*</sup><span class="hps"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif" color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"></span></span></p>
<p class="04">Assistant Professor, Faculty of
Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz</p>
<p class="04">pmohamadzadeh@yahoo.com</p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="03">Davoud
Behboudi</p>
<p class="04">Associate Professor, Faculty of
Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz</p>
<p class="04"><a target="_blank" href="mailto:dbehbudi@tabrizu.ac.ir"><span style="font-family: "TimesNewRomanPSMT","serif" color: windowtext text-decoration: none">dbehbudi@tabrizu.ac.ir</span></a><span style="font-family: "TimesNewRomanPSMT","serif""></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="03">Saeid
Ebrahimi</p>
<p class="04">PhD Student, Faculty of
Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz</p>
<p class="04">ebrahimi.ut@gmail.com</p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 34pt text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="05">Received: 2012/08/13<span> </span>Accepted: 2013/09/14</p>
<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed"> </h1>
<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Abstract<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"" dir="rtl"></span></h1>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span lang="EN-GB">Energy, as an important
factor of production and final product, has a special role in the economic
growth and development of any country. Financial development is also recognized
as a factor that can influence economic growth and energy consumption. In this
paper we investigate the short and long run causal relations amongst energy
consumption, financial development, GDP per
capita and urban population in Iran, for the
period 1971-2008 based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds
testing approach of co integration and Vector Error-Correction Models. In order
to test for structural breaks in the time series data we use the
Zivot Andrews unit root test. The results indicated that
all variables meet the initial condition for the ARDL
model. The result of F-test and Gregory- Hansen
cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long
term relationship between the considered variables. The
ARDL long- term results suggest a positive effect of financial development, GDP
per capita and urban population on energy consumption over the study period.
Causality test results indicate that there is bi-directional causality between
financial development and energy consumption as well as urban population and
energy consumption</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt color: rgb(51, 51, 51)"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB">in the long-term. There is also
a unidirectional causal relationship from GDP per capita to energy consumption
in the long and short -term.</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"" dir="rtl"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><b><span lang="EN-GB">JEL Classification</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">: </span><span lang="EN-GB">C32,</span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt" dir="rtl"><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span> </span><span lang="EN-GB">Q43</span><span lang="EN-GB"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Keywords:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"> Energy Consumption, Financial Development, Urban Population,
Structural Break, Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test,
Gregory- Hansen Cointegration Test, ARDL Approach</span><span class="hps"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "Arial","sans-serif" color: rgb(51, 51, 51)" dir="rtl"></span></span></p>
<div><br clear="all" >
<hr width="33%" size="1" align="left" >
<div id="ftn1">
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 8.5pt text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="MsoFootnoteText"><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1"></a><span style="font-size: 11pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"">*- </span><span style="font-size: 9pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"">Corresponding
Author</span><span style="font-size: 11pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif""></span></p>
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مصرف انرژی, توسعهی مالی, جمعیت شهرنشین, شکست ساختاری, آزمون ریشهی واحد زیوت- اندریوز, آزمون همانباشتگی گریگوری- هانسن, روش ARDL
Energy Consumption, Financial Development, Urban Population, Structural Break, Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test, Gregory- Hansen Cointegration Test, ARDL Approach
77
104
http://iiesj.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-5&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
P.
Mohammad zadeh
پرویز
محمدزاده
1003194753284600972
1003194753284600972
Yes
دانشگاه تبریز
سعید
ابراهیمی
داود
بهبودی
1003194753284600973
1003194753284600973
No
دانشگاه تبریز
دانشگاه تبریز