Quarterely Energy Economics Review
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژي
QEER
Literature & Humanities
http://iiesj.ir
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تحلیل جانشینی بین سوختها در بخش صنعت کشور با استفاده از مدل لاجیت خطی
Analysis of Fuels Substitution in the Iranian Industerial Sector Using a Linear logit Model
اقتصاد انرژي
Energy Economic
پژوهشي
Research
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<p dir="rtl" class="02"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">تحلیل جانشینی
بین سوختها در بخش صنعت کشور با استفاده از مدل لاجیت خطی</span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="03"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">داوود منظور</span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="03"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">دانشیار دانشکدهی
اقتصاد دانشگاه امام صادق </span><span style="font-size: 8pt" dir="ltr">manzoor@isu.ac.ir</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="03"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">لیلی نیاکان</span><a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 3pt font-family: "B Mitra" font-weight: normal"><span dir="ltr"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 3pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">*</span></sup><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed" dir="rtl" class="04"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">دانشجوی
دکتری دانشکدهی اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران <span> </span></span><span dir="ltr">leili.niakan@yahoo.com</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 14pt font-family: "B Nazanin""></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="05"><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">تاریخ دریافت:
27/3</span><span class="04Char"><span lang="FA">/</span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-family: "B Nazanin"">91<span> </span><span> </span>تاریخ پذیرش: 11/08/92</span><span dir="ltr"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16pt"> </span></p>
<h1 dir="rtl"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">چکیده</span></h1>
<p dir="rtl" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">تحلیل جانشینی بین حاملهای انرژی یکی از موضوعات مهم در اقتصاد و
سیاستگذاری انرژی است. جانشینی در بین حاملهای انرژی میتواند تغییرات اساسی در
تراز انرژی و در ترکیب عرضهی انرژی ایجاد کند. جانشینی بین سوختها بیشتر در
اثر تغییر در قیمتهای نسبی ایجاد میشود. اطلاعات مربوط به امکان جانشینی بین
سوختها در ارزیابی اثرات سیاستهای دولت بهویژه سیاست قیمتگذاری انرژی بسیارمؤثر
است. در این میان، تقاضای انرژی بخش صنعت از ظرفیت بالایی برای جانشینی بین سوختها
برخوردار میباشد. در این مطالعه به تحلیل جانشینی بین حاملهای مختلف انرژی در
بخش صنعت ایران در طول دورهی 88-1367 با استفاده از مدل لاجیت خطی پرداخته میشود.
تابع لجستیک با وارد کردن مقادیر باوقفه، بهخوبی مکانیزم تعدیل پویا را نشان میدهد.
برآورد مدل لاجیت خطی پویا نشان میدهد که تقاضای گاز در بخش صنعت با کشش خودقیمتی
25/1- نسبت به تغییرات قیمت آن پرکشش میباشد. در مقابل، تقاضای برق از کششپذیری
پایینی (25/0-) برخوردار است و تقاضای فرآوردههای نفتی تقریباً بیکشش (008/0-)
میباشد. فرآوردههای نفتی و برق مکمل یکدیگر و فرآوردههای نفتی و گاز جانشین
یکدیگر هستند. کشش جانشینی جزئی آلن بین فرآوردههای نفتی و برق و فرآوردههای
نفتی و گاز طبیعی بهترتیب 775/0- و 096/1 میباشد. افزون بر این، گاز و برق با
کشش جانشینی آلن 395/0، جانشینهای متوسطی برای یکدیگر محسوب میشوند.</span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">طبقهبندی </span></b><b><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">JEL</span></b><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>:</span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr">C13,
C01L16, Q42,O13 </span><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin""><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span> </span></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span lang="EN-GB" dir="ltr"><span dir="ltr"></span><span dir="ltr"></span><span> </span></span><span dir="ltr"></span></p>
<p dir="rtl" class="a"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">کلید واژه</span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">: </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">کشش جانشینی، تابع
لجستیک، کشش جانشینی جزئی آلن، مدل لاجیت خطی</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">، </span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">مکانیزم تعدیل پویا</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "B Nazanin"">.</span></p>
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<p dir="rtl" class="MsoFootnoteText"><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt" dir="ltr"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 10pt"><span dir="rtl"></span><span dir="rtl"></span>*- نویسندهی
مسئول</span></span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt" dir="ltr"></span></span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="02"><b>Analysis
of Fuels Substitution in the Iranian Industerial Sector Using a Linear logit
Model</b></p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="03">Davood Manzoor</p>
<p class="04">Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University, manzoor@isu.ac.ir</p>
<p style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="03">Leili Niakan<a name="_ftnref1" href="#_ftn1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt font-weight: normal"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup>*</sup></p>
<p class="04">PhD Student, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran,
leili.niakan@yahoo.com</p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 34pt text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="05">Received: 2012/07/18<span> </span>Accepted: 2013/09/16</p>
<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"" dir="rtl"> </span></h1>
<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Abstract<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: "B Nazanin"" dir="rtl"></span></h1>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><span lang="EN-GB">Analysis of substitution
between energy carriers is an important topic in economics and energy policy.
Substitution between energy carriers could create radical changes in energy
balance and combinationofenergy supply. Substitution between fuels is often
caused by changes in relative prices. The information about the possibility of
substitution between fuels in evaluating the effects of government policies,
particularly energy pricing policy is very effective. Meanwhile, energy demand
in the industrial sector has great potential for substitution between fuels. In
this study we analyze the substitution between various energy carriers in
Iranian industerial sector during 1367-88 using the linear logit model.
Logistic function by entering lagedvalues, well illustrates the dynamic
adjustment mechanism. Estimation of dynamic linear logit model shows that the
elasticity of gas demand in the industry with respect to its price changes
is-1.25 that is high. In contrast, electricity demandhaslower elasticity
(-0.25) and demand for petroleum products has almost zero elasticity (-0.008).
Petroleum products and electricity are complement, and petroleum products and
gas are substitue by each other. Allen partial elasticity of substitution
between electricity and petroleum products and petroleum products and natural
gas are -0.775 and 1.096 respectively. Furthermore, electricity and gas with
Allen elasticity of substitution equal 0.395 are moderate substitutes for each
other.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><b><span lang="EN-GB">JEL Classification</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">: </span><span lang="EN-GB">C01,
C13,L16, O13, Q42</span><span lang="EN-GB"></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="a"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Keywords:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"> Substitution Elasticity, Logestic Function, Allen Partial
Elasticity of Substitution, Linear Logit Model, Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism.</span></p>
<div><br clear="all" >
<hr width="33%" size="1" align="left" >
<div id="ftn1">
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 8.5pt text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed" class="MsoFootnoteText"><a name="_ftn1" href="#_ftnref1"></a><span style="font-size: 9pt font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"">*-
Corresponding Author</span></p>
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کشش جانشینی, تابع لجستیک, کشش جانشینی جزئی آلن, مدل لاجیت خطی, مکانیزم تعدیل پویا.
Substitution Elasticity, Logestic Function, Allen Partial Elasticity of Substitution, Linear Logit Model, Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism.
155
170
http://iiesj.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-8&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
L.
Niakan
لیلی
نیاکان
1003194753284600979
1003194753284600979
Yes
دانشگاه تهران
D.
Manzoor
داوود
منظور
1003194753284600980
1003194753284600980
No
Emamsadegh University
دانشگاه امام صادق