Quarterely Energy Economics Review
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژي
QEER
Literature & Humanities
http://iiesj.ir
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بررسی اثرات اصلاح قیمت سوخت مصرفی نیروگاهها و مالیات بر ارزش افزوده بر تقاضای برق در کشور: رویکرد پویایی سیستمی
Power plant Fuel Price Reform, Value-added Tax and Electricity Demand in Iran: a System Dynamics Approach
اقتصاد انرژي
Energy Economic
پژوهشي
Research
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<p class="02" dir="rtl" style="margin-top: 24pt"><font size="4"><b><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-family: ">بررسی اثرات اصلاح قیمت سوخت مصرفی نیروگاهها و مالیات بر ارزش افزوده بر تقاضای برق در کشور: رویکرد پویایی سیستمی </span></b></font></p>
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<p class="03" dir="rtl"><b><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-family: ">داوود منظور </span></b></p>
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<p class="04" dir="rtl" style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed"><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: ">دانشیار دانشکدهی اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق (علیه السلام) </span><a href="mailto:manzoor@isu.ac.ir"><span dir="ltr" style="color: windowtext text-decoration: none">manzoor@isu.ac.ir</span></a></p>
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<p class="03" dir="rtl"><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-family: ">حسین رضائی</span><a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="FA" style="font-size: 1pt font-weight: normal"><span dir="ltr"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 1pt">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a><sup><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt font-family: ">*</span></sup><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-family: "> </span></p>
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<p class="04" dir="rtl" style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed"><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: ">دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق (علیه السلام) </span><a href="mailto:hrezaee@isu.ac.ir"><span class="Char0"><span color:="" dir="ltr" new="" style="font-size: 9pt font-family: " text-decoration:="" times="">hrezaee@isu.ac.ir</span></span></a></p>
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<p class="04" dir="rtl" style="text-align: center direction: rtl unicode-bidi: embed"><span b="" font-weight:="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 10pt font-family: ">تاریخ دریافت: 06/10/91<span> </span><span> </span>تاریخ پذیرش: 24/06/92</span></p>
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<p class="Heading21" style="line-height: 150%"><span b="" dir="rtl" lang="FA" style="font-size: 13pt line-height: 150% font-family: ">چکیده</span></p>
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<p class="a" dir="rtl" style="line-height: 150%"><a name="OLE_LINK39"><span b="" background:="" lang="FA" none="" repeat="" scroll="" style="font-size: 12pt line-height: 150% font-family: ">انتظار میرود اصلاح قیمت سوخت نیروگاهها در بازار برق به افزایش قیمت برق در بازار و در نتیجه تغییر در میزان تقاضا منجر شود. به منظور سنجش کمّی اثرات پویا و بلندمدت اصلاح قیمت سوخت نیروگاهها بر تقاضای برق در کشور، در این مقاله بازار برق کشور به روش پویایی سیستمی مدل سازی میشود. این مدل دارای بخشهای تقاضا، قیمت و تولید است که برای شبیه سازی آن از نرم افزار پاورسیم استفاده میشود. </span></a><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12pt line-height: 150% font-family: ">نتایج حاصل از شبیهسازی مدل حاکی از آن است که در صورت ادامهی روند قیمتهای گذشته، بازار برق در افق سال 1400 با بیش از 300 تراوات ساعت مازاد تقاضا در سال و در نتیجه خاموشی مواجه میشود. شبیه سازی بازار برق در چارچوب مدل پیشنهادی حاکی از آن است که اصلاح قیمت سوخت مصرفی نیروگاهها در اجرای قانون هدفمندی یارانهها موجب خواهد شد قیمت بازار برق به میزان چشمگیری افزایش یافته و در نتیجه تقاضا کاهش مییابد و بازار برق به تعادل میرسد. چنانچه اصلاح قیمت سوخت نیروگاهها هم زمان با اجرای قانون مالیات بر ارزش افزوده شبیهسازی شود، نتایج به دست آمده نشان میدهد که با فرض متوسط نرخ رشد اقتصادی تجربه شده در یک دههی اخیر، 4/5 درصد، تقاضای برق در پایان دوره 4/5 درصد کاهش مییابد. </span></p>
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<p class="MsoFootnoteText" dir="rtl"><span b="" lang="FA" style="font-size: 9pt font-family: ">*- نویسنده مسئول</span></p>
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<p class="02" style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Power plant Fuel Price Reform, Value-added Tax and Electricity Demand in Iran: a System Dynamics Approach</p>
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<p class="03" style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Davood Manzoor</p>
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<p class="04">Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University</p>
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<p class="04"><a href="mailto:manzoor@isu.ac.ir"><span style="color: windowtext text-decoration: none">manzoor@isu.ac.ir</span></a></p>
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<p class="03" style="text-align: center direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Hossein Rezaee<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 3.5pt"><span><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 3.5pt">[1]</span></b></span></span></span></span></a>*</p>
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<p class="04">Ph.D Student, Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University</p>
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<p class="04">hrezaee@isu.ac.ir</p>
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<p class="04">Received: 2012/09/27<span> </span><span> </span>Accepted: 2013/09/15</p>
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<h1 style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed">Abstract</h1>
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<p class="a" style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed"><span lang="EN-GB">It is expected that fuel price increase for power plants would lead to higher electricity prices<span> </span>and lower electricity demand, especially in the long run. To quantify these effects we develop a system dynamics model for the electricity market in Iran consisting of demand, price and generation modules. The model is applied and simulated using the POWERSIM software. The results indicate that if current subsidized system of pricing for energy is maintained, electricity shortages of more than 300 terawatt hours will occur by 1400. However, price increases as stipulated by the recently enacted Subsidy Reform Law increases electricity prices and will bring the electricity market back into equilibrium.<span> </span>Finally, enforcing value added tax in the electricity market will result in an additional 5.4% reduction in demand for electricity.</span></p>
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<p class="a" style="text-align: justify direction: ltr unicode-bidi: embed"><b><span lang="EN-GB">JEL Classification:</span></b><span b="" dir="rtl" lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt font-family: "> </span><span lang="EN-GB">D43, D50, C63, P22, C61</span></p>
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بازار برق, تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی, قیمت برق, پویایی سیستمی
Keywords: Electricity Market, Electricity Demand, Electricity Price, System Dynamics.
21
37
http://iiesj.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-10&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
داوود
منظور
حسین
رضایی
hrezaee@isu.ac.ir
10031947532846001744
10031947532846001744
Yes
امام صادق
10031947532846001745
10031947532846001745
No