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Anew Approach in Estimate of regional and non-regional visitors preference with Zayanderood Ecosystem Services: Choice Experiment – Conditional Logit
parviz.jalili@gmail.com
1
rahmankh44@yahoo.com
2
fotros@basu.ac.ir
3
morteza.derakshan@yahoo.com
4
Nowadays, environment is one of the most important economic sectors of each country and its valuation is one of the main topics of environmental economics, due to the market failure in the price discovery of environmental Services. The purpose of this study is to determined protective - tourism value of different characteristics of zayanderood and its monuments, with attention to the environmental and tourism’s importance of historical and entertainment areas. To realize this purpose we will estimate the implicit prices, evaluate the effect of economic-social variables on these values and also evaluate welfare effects of changing hypothetical policies. In this study we used 3438 data row that came from 270 choice experiments questionnaire in 6 types, 18 choice sets, 3 choice options, 72 hypothetical policies. Hausman test shows that we can use the conditional logit model. Results of model shows that Visitors have willing to pay 6832, 6745, 4552, 9707 rials for “maintaining forest diversity”, “protection of monuments”, “river hygiene” and “water flow in the river” respectively. Economic-social variables –i.e. age, sex, family size, marriage, income level, education, being native - have positive effect on visitor’s “willing to pay”. Finally, this study offers using market mechanism and visitor’s willing to pay, to preservation of quality of environmental services in zayanderood. Keywords: Valuation, Zayanderood, Choice Modeling, Choice Experiment, Conditional Logit. JEL Classification: Q51, Q53, D46, D62.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-246-en.pdf
Valuation
Zayanderood
Choice Modeling
Choice Experiment
Conditional Logit
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The investigation Long-term relationship between oil and natural gas spot price in formwork of stochastic differential equations
Mohsen Ebrahimi
ebrahimimo@yahoo.com
1
Ezatollah Abbasian
abbasian@basu.ac.ir
2
mohammad mazraati
mo_mazraati@yahoo.com
3
azim nazari
az.nazari61@gmail.com
4
Faculty of Economic and social science, Bu-Ali Sina University
Faculty of Economic and social science, Bu-Ali Sina University
International Institute of Energy Economics Review
Faculty of Economic and social science, Bu-Ali Sina University
Many studies about modeling of oil and natural gas price were done in formwork of stochastic differential equations (derivatives pricing model). The most of these studies have examined the short-term relationship in formwork of commodity pricing model, but they have not significantly examined long-term relationship between oil and natural gas price. Therefore, in this study we try to add the long-term relationship between oil and natural gas spot price to the commodity pricing models (stochastic differential equations). Existence the long-term relationship between spot price of underling commodities induces that the spot price deviate from its long term level. Therefore at extended model, there are two factors that induce deviation of long term level. One of these factors is the convenience yield and other factors related to the long-term relationship (long-term error) among the spot price of the commodities. Our data consist of monthly futures of crude oil and natural gas. This monthly data are obtained through the NYMEX for period from 1994 to 2011. The time to maturity ranges from 1 month to 9 months. We have used contract futures with maturity 1, 3, 5 and 9 months. For estimation of parameter and examination of the extended model efficiency, we have used the Kalman Filter via the MATLAB soft. The results of this study show that there is the long term relationship between spot price of two commodities. Therefore, in modeling by stochastic differential equations (pricing of energy derivatives for example the options), we must consider existence co-movement or the long term relationship between spot price of two commodities.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-175-en.pdf
Spot Price
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Spot Price
Option Pricing
Convenience Yield and Kalman Filter
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Cost - benefit analysis of biogas-fired power plants of the dairy industry in Iran
Hossein Sadeghi
Sadeghih@modares.ac.ir
1
Farzaneh Ghaemi
Ghaemi.Farzaneh@yahoo.com
2
Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh
Ghazizadeh@pwut.ac.ir
3
Tarbiat Modarres University
Power and Water University of Technology
Power and Water University of Technology
One of the most important ways that conserve fossil fuels is the use of renewable resources. Biogas is one of the most important renewable resources. Biogas is created from anaerobic fermentation of livestock waste in a fermentation chamber. Biogas technology is an important from several aspects First, the significant social impact of this technology in the field of environment and human health. Second, it can be fired using biogas generators for generate electricity and third, sludge biogas unit output, would be a rich fertilizer that can greatly increase the efficiency of agricultural products. This paper delivers a cost-benefit analysis of biogas-fired plants, from the perspective of the private sector and the public sector, of the dairy industry in Iran. The results of both analyzes indicate high economic efficiency in the different sizes of biogas-fired power plants in Iran dairy industry.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-144-en.pdf
Anaerobic fermentation
Biogas
Comfar
Cost-benefit analysis
Dairy industry
Power generation
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The initial feasibility study to support the use of electricity using renewable energy in Iran and selection methods improve
azam_gh65@yahoo.com
1
azam_gh65@yahoo.com
2
This paper investigates the feasibility of using protection Initial selection of optimal incentives for renewable electricity generation According to expert opinion and according to the terms of Iran, addresses . In order to achieve this objective incentives used in the world, using AHP method that is based on expert knowledge and according to experts, developing the questionnaire and Expert Choice software, have been ranked. Analysis indicates the method of purchasing power guaranteed weight 145/0, with a weight allowance of 095/0, Tax cuts weighing 088/0, and loans or bonds, or Sukuk, weighing 082/0 as the method is superior in terms of professional. The accelerated depreciation incentives, weighing 048/0 and tradable certificates weighing 054/0 And public tenders, weighing 053/0 of the current situation in Iran experts regard as less effective incentives are introduced.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-210-en.pdf
renewable energy
power generation
analytic hierarchy (AHP)
Expert Choice software
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Estimation of Electricity demand structural model in the agricultural sector using Underlying Trend concept and Kalman filter algorithm
hamid amadeh
amadeh@gmail.com
1
nader mehregan
meisam.haddad66@yahoo.com
2
mahmod haghani
haghani@pwut.ac.ir
3
meisam haddad
meisam.haddad66@yahoo.com
4
Department of Economics, Allameh Tabatabae'i University, Tehran, Iran
Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
Department of Management & Economics, Power and Water University of Technology(ShahidAbbaspour), Tehran, Iran
Department of Management & Economics, Power and Water University of Technology(Shahid Abbaspour), Tehran, Iran
In recent years demand for electricity in Iranian agricultural sector has been increased. Therefore accuratemodeling of the electricity demand in order to adoptionenergy saving policies and predictionof future consumption as well as to provide timely and cost-effectiveness, is important. In this paper using underlying trend concept and creating a state - space model and kalman filter algorithms, the structural model of electricity demand in agricultural sector was estimated. The data used in this study are annuallytime series in period 1353-1389. The results of the process as smooth and being upside is underlying trend. According tolikelihood ratio statistic, most appropriate structure for hyper parameters, were random state level and fixed slopetrend. Income and price elasticity of electricity demand in the short-run and long-run was less than unity.Therefor,price policies are not efficient enough to reduce electricity consumption and it is suggested Change from flood irrigation to drip and sprinkler. Besides electricity consumptionpredictiojn showed an increasing trend in electricity demand. Based on this paper results policy makers should adopt effective nonpricepolicies to reduce electricity consumtion in agri sector and also should pay attention to electricity supply in this sector.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-177-en.pdf
Electricity demand
Agriculture
Underlying Trend
Kalman Filter algorithm
State-Space.
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Comparing two Different Views to the Application of FMEA Method for Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Iran’s Gas Refinery
shamsi ghasemi
sh_ghasemi@modares.ac.ir
1
kazem yavari
kyavari@modare.ac.ir
2
rahim mahmoudvand
r_mahmoudvand@sbu.ac.ir
3
bahram sahabi
bsahabi56@gmail.com
4
modares university
modares university
modares university
modares university
Risk assessment that usually is applied to identify, control and reduce the hazardous consequences, is the main stage of risk management and for doings it, different methods in different area has been introduced and applied well. Researchers in the field, have categorized risk assessment approaches into two approaches deterministic and probabilistic. Nevertheless, our reviews indicate that many of risk assessment methods have been introduced and applied by researchers as a probabilistic method, while, others just called those method in a deterministic type. In this paper, FMEA which is a well known risk assessment method in the area of industrial processes, has been studied and investigated sense of belonging to both the deterministic and probabilistic class. Finally, an empirical study has done in the area of gas industry, which demonstrates the importance of two approaches in risk assessment of this area. Empirical results show that, the results of probabilistic approach are more reliable than deterministic approach.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-137-en.pdf
Risk assessment methods
Deterministic approach
Probabilistic approach
FMEA method
Gas refinery.
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Examining the factors affecting the household sector energy consumption in provinces of Iran
Mojtaba Bahmani
mbahmani@uk.ac.ir
1
saleh.ansari.lari@gmail.com
2
Arash Jamshidnejad
arash_jam_eco@yahoo.com
3
Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Modeling energy demand in various sectors of energy consumption, including measures to increase productivity and better management of this sector and energy efficiency has always been the main objectives of energy policymaker. In this study by applying spatial econometrics and using factors affecting the household energy consumption, we estimated the energy demand for provinces of Iran during 1381-1388. Results indicate that the energy consumption is inelastic to price and elastic to per capita income of individuals and populations and with increasing household size, the energy consumption is reduced. The results suggest that energy consumption in the provinces of Iran follows the spatial pattern.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-176-en.pdf
Energy Consumption
Household Sector
Energy Price
Spatial Econometrics
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An introduction on rights governed in energy services contracts
Fatemeh Alavi
farahalavi77@gmail.com
1
Hamid Reza Aslani
hamidreza.aslani@gmail.com
2
Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch
Shahid Beheshti University
An introduction on rights governed in energy services contracts Hamid Reza Aslani PhD, Private Law, Shahid Beheshti University, Assistant professor and Faculty Member, Department of law, University of Science & Culture hamidreza.aslani@gmail.com Fatemeh Alavi٭ MSc of International Law, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch farahalavi77@gmail.com (Corresponding Author) Received: 2013/08/28 Accepted: Abstract: One of the useful measures for saving in energy consumption in Iran is to make investment market in order to optimize energy carriers’ consumption through founding Energy Services Companies (ESCO). This feature can provide economic benefits and also a suitable context to attract domestic and foreign capitals. For this purpose, we need an efficient, effective and integrated legal- contractual system. Since studying terms of a contract helps to recognize its nature, this paper tries to find out legal nature of ESCO contracts (i.e. which legal entity in Iranian legal system this contract is in line with?) in order to initially compare such entity with some specified contracts in the civil code and Iranian trade. Present paper aims to compare ESCO contract with some domestic legal entities and place it on some well-known concepts frame and also study opportunities, perspectives, challenges and gaps of mentioned contracts. The results show that in spite of similarities of this entity with contracts for renting, reward and commissioning, their segregation is so much that description of ESCO contract under mentioned contracts is not correct and it cannot be placed under a single legal regime as they are not quite consistent. Hence, given the natural attributes and elements of ESCO contract, the appropriate nature of ESCO follows articles 10 and 183 of civil law (i.e. freedom of contracts principles, validity of a contracts principle and priority of nature on selected subject) which have left some effective analytical and practical works and make this contract consistent with Iranian legal system. JEL Classification: K39، K33، K19، K12، Q43، R51 ٭- Corresponding Author
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-218-en.pdf
Keywords: Energy Services Companies (ESCO)
specific legal entities
renting
reward and commissioning
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Optimization of PEM fuel cell`s design parameter using genetic algorithm
somayeh ahmadi
sepide.ahmadi2006@gmail.com
1
vahid firozmand
vahid.frz@gmail.com
2
omid mahdavi
omidmhdv@gmail.com
3
IIES
sharif university of technology
sharif university of technology
Fuel cell is an electrochemical system that converts chemical energy to electricity directly and without combustion. Due to various applications and high energy efficiency of fuel cells, these systems are known as one of the most popular energy conversion systems. So, optimization of fuel cell systems is considered and analyzed by many of scientists and researchers. Therefore, in this study a techno-economic model is developed. First we introduce the overview of the methodology of solving the optimization problem and then, using the equations presented in modeling sector and with considering temperature and pressure of the system, air and hydrogen stoichiometric ratio and current density, a model for a 50 kW fuel cell stack cost is developed. Finally, optimization of costs for constructing a 50 kW fuel cell stack including a fuel cell, air compressor, hydrogen storage tank and other components was implemented using genetic algorithm. Then, sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters. Improving the objective function with changing these parameters is then discussed.
http://iiesj.ir/article-1-223-en.pdf
PEM fuel cell
genetic algorithm
optimization
sensitivity analysis
techno-economic model