@article{ author = {JafariSamimi, Ahmad and BalounejadNouri, Roozbeh}, title = {Testing Weak form Efficiency Hypothesis in Oil Market: Case Study OPEC Basket, Brent, WTI}, abstract ={According to the importance of oil prices on the economy, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the weak form efficiency hypothesis in main crude oil markets, OPEC, WTI and Brent. For this purpose, the two method of wavelets and fractional Brown motion and daily data of oil price for period 2003:1 - 2013:9 were used. The results showed that the OPEC basket price time series and Brent have long range dependence. This means that according to these results, the hypothesis that the weak form efficiency of Brent crude oil market and the OPEC basket price will reject, but evidence for rejecting the hypothesis was not for WTI crude oil. In addition to predictability, there is another consequence of long range dependence in a time series is a shock effect on oil prices, due to factors such as war or the international financial crisis, will remain so for a long time. Thus, consideration to this instance for determination public expenditures and investments by government, constitute the most important recommendations of this study.}, Keywords = {Weak form Efficiency Hypothesis, Oil Market, Wavelets, Fractional Brownian Motion}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {1-20}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-214-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-214-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Yousefi, Hassan and Manzoor, Davooo}, title = {Iran’s Gas Transit to Europe: A Game Theoretic Approch}, abstract ={Iran stands in second position among the countries that have gas reserves after Russia and has a high potential for providing noticeable amount of Europe natural gas demand. There are a variety of routes for Iran’s gas export including Iran-Turkey-Greece and Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon-Greece. We have analysed the Nash- equilibrium for trilateral game in Iran’s gas transit from Turkey and Iraq in 2020 and 2030 perspective under two cooperative and noncooperative strategies. We have concluded that if the three countries participate in a trilateral cooperation, the Nash equilibrium will take place and their profits will be maximized.}, Keywords = {Iran’s Gas Export, Game Theory, Cooperative Strategy, NonCooperative Strategy, Gas Pipeline}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {21-45}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-219-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-219-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {EslamiAndargoli, Majid and Hadian, Ebrahim}, title = {The Investigation of the Green Tax Effects on Employment in the Iran\'s Economy: A CGE Approach.}, abstract ={The increased Energy consumption and pollutants emission caused that the environmental crisis be recognized as one of the most important challenges at the twenty-first century. Therefore, governments strived to overcome environmental problems by different policies and programs. One of the most common types of these policies is the green tax. These taxes are applied on the basis of cost and cause lower inefficiency in the Iran;#39s Economy. Accordingly, this study tries to survey the green tax effects on the level of employment in the Iran;#39s economic sectors. These investigations are done by the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the social accounting matrix (SAM) in the 2006 year. The results indicate that this policy sharply has fallen employment. Also, this criterion is highly influenced in case of sudden shocks and more than 15% and affected less with the gradual shocks less than 15%.}, Keywords = {Green Tax, the Computable General Equilibrium Model, Emission Pollution, Iran.}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {47-85}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-204-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-204-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {}, title = {The survey relationship between oil prices and economic activities for eastern and south-eastern Asian countries: An asymmetric cointegration approach}, abstract ={After recent oil recessions, It’s very important to concern long-term relationship between energy prices (particularly oil) and its effects on economical activity. The aim of this paper is to study the asymetric relationship between oil prices shocks and GDP (proxied activities macro economic) by asymmetric cointegration approach for some eastern and south-eastern Asian countries. Results indicate that, while standard cointegration for all countries exept thailand is rejected, there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between variables.}, Keywords = {South-eastern Asian countries, GDP, Asymmetric cointegration}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {87-104}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-121-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-121-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Dehnavi, Jalal and Jokar, Mohamad Sadegh and Fadaee, Abbas and Rahimi, Gholam Ali}, title = {Second Shale Gas Revolution in China: Investigating China Strategy in Gas Market}, abstract ={China, the world;#39s largest energy consumer and the world;#39s biggest carbon dioxide emitter is at present the most important country in shaping a new international energy landscape. China;#39s current energy demand and its potential for economic growth mean that any change in its energy policy can dramatically affect the trajectory of the energy markets and would have a considerable effect on world;#39s CO2 emissions: a noise caused by China may lead to news in markets. This study investigates China’s energy strategy and tries to explore its effect on natural gas usage, primary energy mix (PEM), and CO2 emissions. Besides, an econometrics technique presents to forecast China’s CO2 emissions over the period 2012-2020. Analysis indicates that reducing energy and carbon intensity are two key features of China;#39s energy strategy (World Energy Outlook, 2011). Hence, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energies will be aggressively encouraged and those shares in PEM will increase remarkably over the next decades. Forecasts indicate the usage of fossil fuels will be increasing in step with high economic growth in China. In addition China will rely more on unconventional natural gas and more specifically shale gas that are more pollutant than conventional gas. Consequently, the total amount of CO2 emissions by China, instead of forecasted changes in its PEM, will not just decrease but also will increase constantly.}, Keywords = {Shale Gas Revolution, China Strategy in Gas Market}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {105-128}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-138-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-138-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {EmamiMeibodi, Ali and Bagheri, Sabah}, title = {A Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Wavelet Transform- Neuro Models: OPEC\'s Basket Crude Oil Price}, abstract ={Forecasting crude oil price is among the most important issues facing energy economists. Forecasting Suitable of oil price and OPEC crude oil price too, due to involvement many of developing countries in the organization with oil price, can be planning by the organization and its member states, has special significance. Estimation and forecasting of oil price trend is a cumbersome task due to lack of significance historical data and limitations on information regarding of economic indicators affecting the oil price trend. This, in turn, intensifies the amounts of parametric noise, complexity and uncertainty associated with estimation of oil price trend. Nevertheless, the success in formulating a reliable model to describe the complex dynamics of this commodity is limited. In this study, artificial neural network, Neuro-Fuzzy network and wavelet transform-neuro hybrid model and daily OPEC basket oil price, for modeling and prediction of short-term OPEC crude oil price is used. The results of these models based on criteria of measuring forecast accuracy, are compared. Results of the study shows that, firstly, de-noise data can improve network performance and secondly, Neuro-Fuzzy network than other models used in this paper has better predictive power.}, Keywords = {Short-term forecast, OPEC crude oil basket, artificial neural network, Neuro-Fuzzy network, wavelets transform.}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {129-154}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-195-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-195-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {ghavidel, saleh and hosieni, marie}, title = {Financial Crisis Effects on Oil Price (ICSS Algorithms and GARCH Approach)}, abstract ={This paper investigates the financial crises effects on price in oil market. We use data of West Texas Intermediate, OPEC basket, Iranian crude oil heavy and Iranian crude oil light price during 1 July 2000 to 11 April 2011 in weekly format. The approach in this paper is GARCH model and we use ICSS Algorithms for identify breakpoints for financial crisis. The resolute show that the financial crisis has effects on volatility change in three kind of oil price, West Texas Intermediate, OPEC basket, Iranian crude oil light. The financial crisis in 2008 reduced variance stability of return oil price.}, Keywords = {Oil price, financial crisis, GARCH, ICSS}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {155-180}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-189-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-189-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Dastkhan, Hossein and ShamsGharneh, Naser and Esfahanipour, Akbar}, title = {An Application of Value at Risk and Extreme Value Theory in the Risk Management of Iranian Oil Selling Revenues}, abstract ={Abstract In general, energy prices volatility and oil price as a special case have a significant effect on the commodity markets. Although, most of concerns are about the oil price increase and its effect on the economic and industry sectors for oil consuming countries, the oil price declining is the most concern of the oil producing countries. This is the case because in most of these countries, the financial structure are relying on the oil selling revenues and huge variations in the oil price result significant effect on the revenues of government. Value at Risk is a risk measure which presents the exposure of risk for a determined significant level in a specific period of time. According to the fact that most of financial and commodity markets have non-normal behavior and there is a great chance for occurring extreme events, the extreme value theory have been used in this paper to calculate the VaR. The results of EVT model is compared with the results of GARCH-based normal and t-student model and the superiority of EVT model for estimating VaR in oil markets is verified.}, Keywords = {Extreme Value Theory, Value at Risk, GARCH Models, Volatility, Currency Reserves}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {181-202}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-188-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-188-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {صادقی, زین العابدین}, title = {The implementation of locational marginal pricing in Kerman’s Electricity Transmission Network}, abstract ={Considering the competitive milieu of electricity industry and the emergence of different energy markets, energy price and the ways of determining it are among the most important issues which play a key role in plans of the producing companies, buyers and the system users. In the recent years, locational marginal pricing in electricity market has become under the spotlight of the world’s great electricity markets. This study focuses on the implementation of the locational marginal pricing in Kerman’s electricity transmission network in 2012. The results showed that due to the density of the transmission network, implementation of locational marginal pricing has caused different prices in different system buses, and the new prices are higher than the present existing prices in Kerman’s electricity transmission network which means the increase of producers’ profit. The constant increase of price elasticity in proportion to the distance shows that the change of prices in relation with the distance variable increases the market’s potential of monopoly.}, Keywords = {Locational Marginal Pricing, Transmition netwok, Restructure, Competetive market}, volume = {10}, Number = {43}, pages = {203-229}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-196-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-196-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2015} }