@article{ author = {JafariSamimi, Ahmad and BalounejadNouri, Roozbeh and Tranchian, Amir Mansoor}, title = {An Investigation of the Impact of Oil Revenue Shocks on Output and Inflation under Conditions of Price and Wage Stickiness}, abstract ={Abstract Output and inflation are two important indicators used to measure economic performance.  This study aims to investigate the effects of oil revenue shocks on output and inflation. To this end, we design an open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Iranian economy. We proceed to estimate impulse response functions of the Iranian economy to oil revenues shocks after linearization and calibration of model coefficients. Comparing estimated values of variables with the actual data of the economy indicate the relative success of the model in predicting changes in output and inflation. The results indicate that positive shocks of oil revenues increase output and inflation in the Iranian economy. JEL Classification: C63، E63، Q43، E32}, Keywords = {Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, New Open Economy Macroeconomic, Price and wage Stickiness}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {1-32}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-351-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-351-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {KHOSHNEVIS, MARYAM and PAJOOYAN, JAMSHID}, title = {The study of the role of development on the impact of environmental pollution on the human development index}, abstract ={Abstract Attention to sustainability of developmental outcomes requires us to take into account the impact of growth on the environment.  The focus of many countries on achieving economic growth through industrialization leads to an increase in greenhouse gases. The resultant deterioration of air quality has a negative impact on environmental conditions and health of citizens. This can potentially lower life expectancy which if one of the important indicators of human development. This article analyzes the impact of environmental pollution on human development indices of three groups of countries with different degrees of human development, using the panel data on life expectancy for the period 2000 to 2010.  We find that environmental pollution negatively impacts human development. We observe that the less developed a country is, the more it suffers from the negative effects of air pollution on human development JEL Classification : O15,O44,Q56,C33,I15}, Keywords = {Human Development, Human Development Index, Environmental Pollution, Life Expectancy, Panel Data}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {33-61}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-464-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-464-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Javan, Afshin and Mohammadi, Taymour and Ghanimifard, Hojatollah and Taklif, Atefeh}, title = {Natural Gas in Iran Compared to Prices Resulting from Implementation of Iran,s Subsidies Removal Policy (Dynamic Panel Data and Boiteux–Ramsey Pricing Model Approaches)}, abstract ={Abstract In this paper we use dynamic panel data methodology to estimate income and price elasticities of demand for gas in the four Iranian climatic regions as delineated by the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC).  Our results indicate a Cobb-Douglas production function where the sum of coefficients is higher than one, indicating monopolistic behavior by NIGC.  We calculate the total cost of gas treatment and transmission using factors obtained from the Cobb-Douglas function. The study then proceeds to develop a Boiteux–Ramsey pricing model.  Our estimated prices ndicate that the increase in gas prices observed up to 2014 are consistent with optinal Boiteux–Ramsey prices that produce an internal rate of return in the range of 17% to 25%. We note than any increase beyond this range would lead to welfare losses for natural gas consumers. JEL Classification: Q31, Q43, P28, G01, G02, G23, G61, G87, G88}, Keywords = {Dynamice Panel Data, FMOLS, Boiteux –Ramsey Optimal Pricing}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {63-91}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-707-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-707-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {ghaemiasl, mahdi and Salimifar, Mostafa and MahdaviAdeli, Mohammad Hossien and RajabiMashhadi, Mostaf}, title = {Technical-Economic Analysis of Environmental Scenario of Hybrid Wind-Sun-Fossil Portfolio by Modification of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) for Gas Turbines (Case Study: Khorasan Regional Electricity Co.)}, abstract ={Abstract In the environmentally sensitive scenario we estimate the potential production of a hybrid wind-solar-fossil fuel system that uses 100 % of the wind and solar potential, while ensuring grid stability, in order to minimize environmental emissions. Maximising the use of renewable energies requires storage systems to deal with the fluctuating nature of such power production in order to ensure a reliable and stable grid. Our study finds that introducing the maximal extent of potential solar and wind power production, along with modification of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) for gas turbines, reduces CO2 emissions by 4.28 million tons and increases the cost of production ten times over the current production structure of the Khorasan Ragional Electricity Co. It is thus clear that adoption of this environmentally optimal scenario requires substantial financial support of the government plus localization of renewable technology to reduce the cost of production. We also find that increasing the capacity of CAES from 50 to 100 MW produces the outcome with the highest reduction in prices, the lowest increase in environmental emissions and the highest rate of growth of net income. We thus find a CAES capacity of 100 MW to be the optimal starting point for moving towards an environmentally sensitive electricity production system. JEL Classification: N7، O13، P28، Q42.}, Keywords = {Simulation of production power system, environmental scenario of hybrid production portfolio, Compressed Air Energy Storage.}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {93-124}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-428-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-428-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {azami, somayeh and almasi, mojtaba and sarouee, mahi}, title = {Structure – Performance Relationship in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): Estimating the Degree of Implicit Collusion between OPEC members and OPEC’s Belief of non-OPEC}, abstract ={Abstract Following the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm (SCPP), we estimate “the extent of agreement amongst OPEC member countries” and “confidence of OPEC member countries in the behavior of non-members” for the period 1974 to 2012. Our study finds that the structure of OPEC explains its behavior. The linear and non-linear estimates of these parameters suggest that during this period OPEC has generally behaved in a manner consistent with Cournot Competition in  the presence of a competitive fringe.  JEL Classification: D23, D40, L10, Q49}, Keywords = {structure – performance, OPEC, The Degree of Implicit Collusion, Conjectural Variations}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {125-142}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-461-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-461-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {آفرینشفر, سعیده}, title = {An Assessment of the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuatiouns on the Value Added of Main Sectors of Iran’s Economy}, abstract ={Abstract Oil revenue fluctuations and Dutch disease (i.e. development of the non-traded services sector at the expense of traded sectors of agriculture and industry) are two manifestations of the resource curse.  In this article we study the resource curse in Iran through looking at the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on the industry and mines, agriculture and services sectors of the Iranian economy over the period 1973 to 2011. We first estimate oil price fluctuations through use of the GARCH model.  We then use an ARDL model to estimate the short and long term impact of oil price fluctuations on the value added of the industry, agriculture and services sectors. We use an ECM model to assess the relationship between short and long term changes. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations negatively impact the agriculture and industry sectors and have positive effects on the services sector. JEL Classification : C22, Q31, Q32}, Keywords = {oil price fluctuation, agriculture, industry, services, GARCH}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {143-172}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-478-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-478-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {azar, adel and hashemi, mehdi}, title = {Providing A Method To Assess the Assaluyeh Petrochemical Plants Green Supply Chain Performance By Using a Combination of Fuzzy Method and Nonlinear Modeling}, abstract ={Abstract: Green supply chains management provide an excellent opportunity for those of who are concern about Sustainable development and Environmental business practices. Companies have to Review about the design of products and techniques to create products compatible with the environment. On this basis, the green supply chain management has became more important. In the past, supply chain management was a view to improve performance in entire supply chain based on productivity and profit increasing, And It's managers were looking for faster delivery of goods and services, costs reduction and quality increase, But the importance of improving environmental performance, social issues and environmental degradation was not considered in this view. The approach of green supply chain management, in general, is Considered tangible and intangible costs, Negative and destructive effects on the environment, and social issues. In this study, a Green supply chain performance assessment method of Borzoyyeh petrochemical is provided by using a combination of fuzzy method and non-linear modeling approach. For this purpose, first, path analyses used for presentation of a green supply chain evaluation model. Then paired comparison questionnaires associated with definition of criteria’s weights was given to 15 specialist and to the method of non-liner modeling, criteria’s and sub criteria’s was calculated. In the next step, the idea of specialists about performance evaluation of green supply chain of benchmarking and Borzoyyeh petrochemical were collected from questionnaires. Then using fuzzy technique, benchmarking performance of Borzoyyeh petrochemical were evaluated. Then the result of performance evaluation of green supply chain of Borzoyyeh petrochemical compared with benchmarking. The results of performance evaluation of green supply chain of Borzoyyeh petrochemical showed, Borzoyyeh petrochemical in term of green criteria , cost and customer associated with flexibility and financial criteria’s in comparison with benchmarking is in worst situation.}, Keywords = {green supply chain management, performance assessment, fuzzy method, nonlinear modeling}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {173-194}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-498-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-498-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Providing A Method To Assess the Assaluyeh Petrochemical Plants Green Supply Chain Performance By Using a Combination of Fuzzy Method and Nonlinear Modeling}, abstract ={Abstract The move to green supply chains provides an opportunity for simultaneous attention to environmental issues and sustainability of business functions. Companies have to review the design of their products and production technology to ensure that they produce products that take into account environmental factors both during their production and use. This approach forces firms to minimize the environmental costs of their operations that do not impact their money metric cost of production.  In this study we use a combination of fuzzy method and non-linear modeling approach to assess the green supply chain performance of Assaluyeh petrochemical plants. For this purpose, we first develop a green supply chain evaluation model, based on a thorough review of the existing research in this area.  We then distributed paired comparison questionnaires associated with definition of the weight of criteria and sub-criteria to 15 specialists. We used a non-liner modeling to estimate the weights of criteria and sub-criteria.  These weights were then used to assess the optimal performance of Assaluyeh petrochemical plants through a fuzzy technique.  We used this benchmark to assess the actual performance of Assaluyeh petrochemical plants. The results indicated a suboptimal performance of Assaluyeh petrochemical plants in term of green supply chain performance criteria. JEL Classification: E23، I12، Q01، Q56}, Keywords = {tepix,oil price index,dynamic conditional corellation }, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {195-213}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-525-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-525-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Evaluate Iran Oil Industry Financing by AHP Method}, abstract ={Abstract In this research to evaluate Iran oil industry financing by AHP method ,external buy back ,internal buy back, external buy back with internal partner, internal buy back with external partner and combined  financing (bounds, finance,..) have been verified and with AHP method compared. In this way 10 criteria  by reviewing experts  opinions and others articles and books  have been identified and to compare and evaluate Iran oil industry financing ways ,2  questionnaires have been prepared and completed  by 13 experts who have been worked in south pars projects .and for analyzing the data EXPERT CHOICE soft ware has been used. The result of the research shows that Quality, reach to programmed production, transfer of new world technology and speed  are the five most important  criteria and cost of project ,company supervision , technical assistance ,deal with sanction ,  attraction of inventor and  used of  Iranian content  are the least important criteria. Finally by considering all criteria external buy back the order of : external buy back with internal partner, internal buy back with external partner, internal buy back and combined financing (bounds, finance,) have been chosen as the convention methods of Iran oil industry financing ways . JEL Classification:G19}, Keywords = {financing way, bounds, finance, BOT, south pars projects}, volume = {12}, Number = {48}, pages = {215-229}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-708-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-708-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {The Effect of Inter-Fuel Substitution in OECD Energy Market on Share of OPEC and Iran\'s Crude Exports}, abstract ={}, Keywords = {Keywords: Interfuel Substitution, MSI, OECD, Logit Model, Forecasting, OPEC and Iran's crude oil Export}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {1-26}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-823-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-823-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Falahi, Mohammad Ali and Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza and Karimi, Elahe}, title = {The Study of Price Volatility Spillover Effects in International Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Markets}, abstract ={The ability to identify the volatility spillover between assets has many applications in macroeconomics and finance. The Knowledge of spillover, for investors, improves the prediction of volatility and can be used in asset pricing, too. Similarly, the effect of the spillover may show the transfer of information and help to design the conditional hedging ratio. The present study, using GARCH-BEKK approach, investigates the effect of volatility spillover between crude oil, gasoline and diesel fuel markets. Therefore international daily spot prices of these products during 2000 – 2012 are used. The results show that the spillover effect in energy markets are statistically significant. Except the shock spillover from gasoline and diesel markets to crude oil and the shock spillover effect from diesel fuel to crude oil, The other shock spillovers and volatility spillovers are significant at the 99 percent level}, Keywords = {Volatility Spillover, Price, Energy Markets, GARCH model}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {27-44}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-376-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-376-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {rahmati, bahar and samsami, hosein and heidari, kioumars}, title = {Investigate The Effect Of Ownership Structure On Power Plants Industry (with emphasis on privatization)}, abstract ={The study investigate the effect of privatization and ownership structure on efficiency and productivity of electricity industry's power plants. By using Data Envelopment Analysis Method and Malmquist Index, efficiency and productivity of state sector, transferred sector and private sector was calculated. This study occurred during 1388-1392.The result shows that, transferred and private sector entree to electricity industry, has been associated with increasing in productivity. Also transferred sector and private sector had been better performance than state sector.}, Keywords = { Electricity Industry, Ownership Structure, Privatization, Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Index}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {45-70}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-603-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-603-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Measuring the Industry Indicators Market Risk of Petroleum Products, Chemicals and Rubber Based on Regime Transfers Approach}, abstract ={Oil and petrochemical industry as one of the important industries is the country's economy driving and many investors are willing to invest in this industry. With regard to the transfer of a large part of the shares of companies active in this industry in Stock Exchange, investors can invest in this area through the purchase and the transaction of value of the assets of these companies. However, one of the main challenges in field of investment in this industry is lack of knowledge of the industry market risk in these areas than other areas. Therefore, the present study we attempted to provide a model developed to extraction of the stock market risk for active companies in the field of oil and oil products. Oslo we compared risk of this companies with market risk. The results show that the return of industries follow from regime transfers and have got the asymmetric structure based on abnormal distributions. Also the return risk of both Rubber and petroleum industry was less than the return risk of total index, but the risk of chemical industry was greater than risk of total index.}, Keywords = {Value at Risk, Markov Chain Process, Oil and Petroleum Products}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {71-101}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-572-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-572-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Aghaei, Maji}, title = {investigation the dynamic relationship between energy and economic growth in different energy carriers and various economic sectors: Application of ARDL bounding test}, abstract ={investigation the dynamic relationship between energy and economic growth in different energy carriers and various economic sectors: Application of ARDL bounding test}, Keywords = {energy, economic growth, ARDL bounding test}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {103-161}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-583-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-583-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Evaluation and Prioritization of Financing Options for Project Implementation using the Analytic Hierarchy Process Case Study: South Pars Special Economic Energy Zone}, abstract ={}, Keywords = {Financing, Analytic hierarchy process, Usance, Pars special economic energy zone}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {163-180}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-829-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-829-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Economic evaluation of producing electricity from wind turbines (A case study: On ibn Ali´s wind turbines)}, abstract ={The expanding need of human for energy resources is always one of basic and most important issues in human life and trying to achieve a renewable resource of energy is the ancient human desire. However, due to the increasing need for energy and resource constraints on the one hand and increasing environmental pollution caused by the burning of fossil resources on the other use of renewable energies have become more important and is extending. So, in this study by using ARMA econometrics opproach, wind speed in the Tabriz city between the years 1393-1409 has been predicted and electricity energy has been calculated.also the cost of per capita Kilowatt electricity from the wind turbin calculated and compare with per Kilowatt electricity from power plant's thermal that the results shows that the cost of per Kilowatt electricity from wind turbin equals to 1234/24 Rials that almost is equal to a cost of per Kilowatt electricity from power plant's thermal by use of nonsubsidize fuel. Finally, by use of economic analyzing of projects rechniques, we examine the production of electricity from wind turbin. Results from the economic analyzing of projects shows that producing electricity from wind turbins has economies of scale. JEL Classification: O13, L71, Q55}, Keywords = { wind turbines, Renewable Energy, Auto-Regressive Moving Average Process, Environment}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {181-200}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-828-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-828-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {shahabinejad, Vahi}, title = {Measuring Total-factor energy efficiency and energy saving potential in Asian economies: application of Stochastic Frontier Analysis}, abstract ={This paper analyzes the total factor energy efficiency and the energy saving potential of the 37 Asian economies using the energy-input stochastic frontier model based on the assumption of the trans-log production function during the period of 1980-2011. The empirical results indicate that Srilanka, Macao, Vietnam, Philippine and India perform the best in terms of energy efficiency, whereas Kuwait, Qatar and the Bahrain perform the worst during the entire research period. The results also show that the total of the energy saving potential for Asian economies, is 2733.34 million ton oil equivalent which is more than 40% of total energy consumption by all countries. The energy saving potential in Iran, 131.21 investigated, that is larger than the overall energy consumption of 29 countries such as Pakistan, Turkey, Singapore and Malaysia but lesser than China, Russia, India, Japan, Korea, Saudi and Indonesia. Generally speaking, there is much space to improve energy efficiency of Iran and many Asian economies.}, Keywords = {Total Factor Energy Efficiency, energy saving potential, energy-input stochastic frontier model, Asian countries.}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {201-224}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-542-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-542-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Behavioural Analysis on Oil Reserve Reports by OPEC Members And its Consequences on Their Oil Supply}, abstract ={Expectations play a key role in crude oil price fluctuations. It seems it is the prime effect on the diversified supply behaviours and eventually the actual oil price alterations. Therefore, having studied the main influences on the expectations, the nature of the oil market and its potentials can be clearly and consistently deduced. One of the significant essentials with a high impact on the prospective oil price expectations is the current oil reserves volume, specifically for the OPEC members, and the very limited improved oil reserves volume. The vital importance of the oil reserves volume for the OPEC members, in addition to the prestige, is to obtain a larger share of the total OPEC oil supply. In the early 1980s, while establishing the system of allocating national supply quotas for OPEC members, the “reserve volume” was defined among the main criteria. Hence the start of a competitive behaviour for exceeding reserve volume reports among the members. This paper tries to investigate the actual impact of this non-real information on the major strategies and policies of OPEC. Based on this research, there is no considerable correlation between the reserves volume increase and crude oil supply fluctuations for most of the OPEC countries. Accordingly, the exaggerated oil reserve reports are the consequences of a hidden competition among members to leverage a better and higher position in the organization, and a larger share in the oil supply. JEL Classification:  Q3، Q32، Q35، C24، C22.}, Keywords = {OPEC, oil reserves volume, Oil price, Production Policy.}, volume = {12}, Number = {49}, pages = {225-254}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-831-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-831-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {kiani, ali and Eslamloueyan, Karim}, title = {The Impact of Different Data Frequency on Prediction Powers of Various Short- and Long Memory Models: an application to Oil Market Volatility}, abstract ={Many researchers have used different methods to forecast the volatility of goods and capital markets. However, only few have taken into account the importance of data frequency on their predictions. However, none of them have considered the possibility of long run memory in predicting the volatility of oil market. In order to fill this gap in the literature, we have estimated a class of ARFIMA and GARCH models (long- and short-run memory models) with different data frequency to predict oil market volatility. Based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criterion, irrespective of models' type, all models with high frequency data outperform the low frequency data models. The result also shows that at each frequency level, the prediction powers of both ARFIMA and GARCH models are the same. To sum up, we suggest the use of short-run memory model with high frequency data to forecast volatility of oil market. Hence, it seems a proper GARCH model can do the job and there is no need to use ARFIMA model for this purpose.}, Keywords = {Data frequency, long vs short memory models, GARCH, ARFIMA, Prediction of Oil Price Volatility}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {1-24}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-426-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-426-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Mohammadi, Teymour and Momeni, Farshad and KazemiNajafAbadi, Abbas and Bahadori, Shirkou}, title = {Effect of Petroleum Contracts on Iranian Oil Production Trend}, abstract ={This paper has investigated the impact of petroleum contracts on Iranian oil production trend. At first, effect of these contracts on a sample reservoir has evaluated and then by using the obtained results, Iranian oil production trend has estimated. Forecasting oil production trend from sample reservoir is obtained by applying a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programing (MINLP) which maximizes Net Present Value of the producer and considering physical, economical and contractual aspects. Then, by applying Multiple Lambda Hubbert Model and using obtained results, effect of petroleum contracts on Iranian oil production trend has investigated for two different periods. Based on obtained results for optimized production of the sample reservoir, in the case of existing long-term contracts with International Oil Company (IOC) production rate is more than the case which National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) controls oil production. Obtained results show that in the period which IOCs have had control of oil production, due to their incentive for maximizing profit, production rate is higher than potential production. While in the period of developing oilfields by signing Pure Service Contracts which production management would be conducted by NIOC, due to lack of technology and insufficient investment, actual production is lower than potential production.}, Keywords = {Petroleum Contracts, Iran oil production trend, Multiple Lambda Hubbert Model }, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {25-52}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-623-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-623-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Moghaddam, Hussein and GhanimiFard, Hojatollah and Moghaddam, Mohammadrez}, title = {A Review of Biofuels Industry: Challenges and Obstacles}, abstract ={In recent years, upward increase of energy consumption and fossil fuel usage as the main source of energy along with its limitations and also concerns about its environmental impacts proves the significance of finding alternative sources. Thus, wide-ranging studies, projects and researches have been conducted on the issue around the world. Generally, this research aims at introducing diverse biofuel production methods as an essential alternative for fossil fuels. Accordingly, this article not only gives details about biofuels and their advantages and disadvantages in different phases of production and their differences but also inspects the obstacles and limitations of the so-called industry from different perspectives. Different countries’ policies about the biofuel production will also be discussed. The findings of the study indicate that despite various obstacles, biofuel production industry will be having a noticeable growth in developed countries, its non-pollutant essence and energy safety issues being the reasons for such a development.}, Keywords = {biofuels, renewable energies, energy basket, obstacles and limitations of biofuel production and consumption }, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {53-84}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-431-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-431-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {asali, mehdi and madadi, saee}, title = {Evaluation of the Effectiveness of OPEC News Announcements on Crude Oil Prices, Before and after 2003}, abstract ={Until 2003, function of financial markets was price discovery and hedging. From 2003, oil was introduced as an asset and speculators arrived at financial markets to get profit. Entrance of speculators and attenuation of OPEC position due to the lack of the implementation of some past decisions caused different role for OPEC before and after 2003. In this study, for Evaluation of the effectiveness of OPEC news announcements on the crude oil prices, modification of the dummy variables is used. According to the results, adherence pattern of crude oil prices from the lags is different before and after 2003. As well, announcements of increase and maintain production don’t have significant effects after 2003 while the effectiveness of reduction production after 2003 had more continuity in compare of before 2003.}, Keywords = {OPEC News Announcement, Dummy Variables, Crude Oil Price}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {85-99}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-500-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-500-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {kafaie, Mohammadali and khosravi, Atefeh}, title = {Energy efficiency in Iran’s provincial with Stochastic frontier production function method}, abstract ={Energy is the main scares factor of production. So paying attention to energy efficiency is necessary in achieving higher growth rates. The aim of this research is to investigate energy consumption efficiency of Iran’s provinces because of their climate differences. We estimate a Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function (based on theoretical and empirical grounds) with provincial data of 1385-1390 to compare energy efficiencies of similar climate provinces. Our findings show that although the provincial inefficiency is rising through time but its effect on provincial production is trivial. The comparison of energy efficiencies between similar climate provinces show that in mountainous climate area, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province in semi-hot climate area, Hormozgan province, in hot climate southern Khorasan province and in wet climate Gilan province, are more energy efficient provinces. Also we find that average technical efficiency and average energy efficiency of 30 provinces during our time period are 90% and 2% respectfully, which means that although the total technical efficiency of country is high but the energy efficiency is low.}, Keywords = {Energy efficiency, Technical efficiency , Stochastic frontier production function, provincial analysis.}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {101-128}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-517-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-517-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {EchreshKarimi, Mona and Kouhbor, Mohammad Amin and GhasemyVarnamkhasti, Jafar and Saeidi, Nasser}, title = {An Investigation of leading and price discovery in OPEC spot and West Texas Intermediate oil futures markets}, abstract ={In this study, the relationship between futures and spot markets is investigated for two different types of benchmark oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and OPEC, using monthly data from January 2003 to November 2014. For this purpose, a vector Autoregression model, Johansen test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test is applied. The Johansen test results indicated a long run relationship between OPEC spot and WTI oil futures prices. According to Granger causality test,although there was no short run causality between OPEC spot and WTI oil futures markets, a bidirectional long run causality is found between these markets. The vector error correction model supported the dominant role of WTI oil futures market in leading and price discovery. Results from the impulse response functions showed a positive and transient dynamic effect of spot price’s shock on futures prices, while the spot prices have negative and persistent response following a shock on futures prices. Based on variance decomposition procedure, the most influential variable in explaining OPEC spot price variations, is the OPEC spot price variable and then US oil inventories}, Keywords = {Futures Market, Spot Market, Price Discovery, Lead-LagRelationship, Granger Causality.}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {129-155}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-582-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-582-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Shahgaldi, Azadeh}, title = {The effects of rising fuel prices and exchange rate in the wholesale electricity market in Iran}, abstract ={Nowadays, many countries have focused on optimizing the power industry, increasing the efficiency and predicting necessary capacities to response growing demand .In this study, in addition to simulating the electricity market, the effect of changes in fuel prices and the exchange rate on the price of electricity on the wholesale market are investigated. Then, using a financial model that includes plant's costs and revenues, returns on investing in different plants have been studied. The results show that the current internal rate of return on investment in the construction of open cycle gas turbine power plants is more than the combined cycle gas turbine power plants and steam power plant. With the rising fuel prices, incentives and internal rate of return on investment in CCGT power plants and steam power plants increase more than OCGT power plants. Also, by increasing in exchange rate, the sequence of investment incentives is maintained and by decreasing in exchange rate, incentives to invest in construction of CCGT power plants and steam power plants increase more than OCGT power plants.}, Keywords = {simulation, wholesale electricity market, exchange rate, fuel price, internal rate of return}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {157-193}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-627-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-627-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {jalalifar, behnaz and babaie, niloofar}, title = {What is the effect of oil price fluctuation on the upstream investment of OPEC members?}, abstract ={Abstract Iran is among the important oil producers in the world and a member of OPEC, and if it wants to keep its share of oil market, it is important to know when and how to invest in its oil industry. To keep its market share, Iran must not only keep the current production level but also improve it. In order to do this, other OPEC members’ production plan must be reviewed.   In this research, the operation of the OPEC members for investment in the upstream of oil industry has been studied.   Goals:   The goal of this research is to understand the effect of oil price fluctuation on the OPEC members’ decision about the investment in upstream oil industry, to see if their decision flow a program or have a model and what the role of oil price in this model is.   Methodology:   In this research, for each member of OPEC, an econometric model has introduced. It is a BVAR model with two main variables. One of the main variables is the oil price and the other one is numbers of the rigs in each country. The rigs’ numbers is used as a proxy for amount of investment in the upstream.  }, Keywords = {oil price, investment, oil upstream industry, BVAR, OPEC}, volume = {12}, Number = {50}, pages = {195-227}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-578-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-578-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Estimation and prediction time series of energy resources extraction for Iranian economy (1980-2031)}, abstract ={By extraction of energy resources (oil and gas), we expect the extractive resource is always be decrease over time. But study by authors shows, because of random exploration in the specific time, we have increased in the levels of extractable resources. We indicated (using non-parametric random RUNS test) that change in the level of resources follows a random process at 95 percent significant. In this study we considered sixteen random distributions for this stochastic process in three different models. According to criteria of best Estimation and prediction, hyper geometric and normal distribution is confirmed for this stochastic process as the random distribution of resources. According to the best estimations for extractive resources from 2015 to 2031 the averaging growth rate is predicted -0.4 percent per year. While, average annual growth rate of extractive resources have been 3.1 percent between years 1980 to 2014. According to the forecast, the growth rate for the years of this study (2015-2031) is negative, so the stock of resource will not increase over time. Result of the best model is considered before 2023 the stocks of extractive resources are increasing, but after 2023 the level of resources that can be extracted will be decreasing.}, Keywords = {Random stock of resources, Holt’s exponential smoothing, Iranian economy}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {1-32}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-576-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-576-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {hajiyanpirooz, davoud and ebrahimisalary, taghi and maleksadati, saei}, title = {Investigating the impact of oil revenue fluctuations on liquidity in Iran during 1990-2012 using dynamic conditional correlation}, abstract ={Fluctuations in oil revenues are one of the most important economic issues in oil producing countries. Sound fiscal and monetary policy to soften the effects of exogenous fluctuations in oil revenues in the domestic economy has been a controversial issue in economic policy-making bodies. The main purpose of this study is investigating the effects of oil revenue on liquidity in Iran during 1990-2012 using Engle (2002) dynamic conditional correlation method. As this method assumes correlations varying during time, it makes it possible to enhance the analyzing power of phenomena during studied period Such as wars, business cycles, economic, political, and environmental phenomena. The results show that despite the volatile nature of the relationship between oil revenues and liquidity, correlation between these two variables has been always positive. That is, oil with the severity of different impacts, has always been one of the factors increasing liquidity. }, Keywords = {monetary policy, liquidity, oil revenue fluctuations, dynamic conditional correlation}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {33-66}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-677-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-677-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {memarzadeh, abbas and ememimeybodi, ali}, title = {40 years’ experience of oil price fluctuations: Importance and Consequences}, abstract ={It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists’ improved understanding of oil markets. We document that, in practice, policymakers, financial market participants and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others. Finally, six main factors is documented about the outlook of oil price which not only will oil prices rise but also to take more dramatic downward trend.}, Keywords = {Oil market, oil price shock, heterogeneous price expectations, OPEC, unconventional oil.}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {67-109}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-636-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-636-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {mahdavi, roholla and taherifard, ali and keypour, javad and sahebhonar, hame}, title = {The Evaluation of Economic using Associated Petroleum Gas in NGL Unit: Case Study of NGL-3200 Unit}, abstract ={The Statistics are indicated flare of 40 percentage of Associated Petroleum (APG) in iran that in this volum, iran have fourth rank in world and first rank in Middle East. Economic and enviomental dimensions of flare of this gased has led to in country is planned projects for gathering APG. In between these projects, NGL Unit has the main share in gathering of APG that in this between, NGL-3200 Unit, with capacity of 14.15 million cubic meters in day, is important due to gathering of APG from oil fields of karon West. Therefore, in present research, using Cost-Benefit Analysis method and financial index of Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Return Rate (IRR) and payback period is evaluated NGL-3200 project. The result of economic evaluation demonastrate that if this unit is acted with 100 percentage of capacity, then NGL-3200 project will have economic feasibility in IRR 28.29 percentage. Also, the result of sensivity analysis of project illustrate that first if feedof this unit have decrease excess 22 percentage, then this project don’t will have economic feasibility, second in the event of review NGL-3200, if nominal capacity of this unit have decrease excess 40 percentage, then will be lost economic feasibility of NGL-3200 project. Thirdly for given IRR 25 percentage, APG price should be 5.1 cent in current nominal capacity and 3.24 cent in nominal capacity Equivalent to 50 percentage of current capacity.}, Keywords = {Associated Petroleum Gas, Net Present Value, Internal Return Rate, NGL-3200}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {111-149}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-662-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-662-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {}, title = {An Appraisal of Spatial club convergence of Iran’s province-level industrial energy efficiency}, abstract ={The purpose of this study is to analysis of  convergence among  Iran’s province-level industrial energy efficiency over the period of 2004 to 2013. In this regard, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) was adopted to  calculate the total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) of Iran’s provincial industrial energy efficiency and  then,  using Transition probability matrix of Markov and Matrix of spatial Markov transition probability, club convergence and spatial club convergence is studied. According to the results Semnan and Bushehr provinces had the most energy efficiency in their industrial sector while Ilam and West Azerbaijan provinces had the lowest energy efficiency. In addition, the results suggest province-level industrial energy efficiency in Iran has been globally characterized by “club convergence” So that a high-efficiency spatial lag increased the probability of transmission to high-efficiency club. Thus increasing regional cooperation in provinces with high efficiency in order to strengthen the neighboring provinces could have a positive impact on their efficiency.}, Keywords = {Efficiency, Energy, Spatial Club Convergence, Industry}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {151-179}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-646-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-646-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Introduction to A Theoretical Framework for Evaluating Petroleum Contracts from an Optimal Production Policy Point of View: Iran’s Buyback Contracts}, abstract ={Introduction to a theoretical framework for evaluating petroleum contracts from an optimal production policy point of view: Iran’s Buyback Contracts. In this article, compared the definition of optimal policy and implementation in theoretical framework, it would be shown that this specification is favorable for the government as the owner of the exhaustible resources in any contractual framework. However if that planning for developing reservoir obtain then could be have; A-Flexibility, B-Long-term planning horizon, C-integrity and comprehensiveness of decisions and D-ability to attract financial resources and know how . If mentioned provision in planning considered then it could be ensured about optimal policy and implementation for reservoirs. Study of the buyback contract, showed that for the reasons of determination of reservoir development model, contractor work commitment, investment costs cap and sustainable production profile before signing the contract and etc., actually contract provisions could not be obtained.   Regarding to the  transfer of the field  operation right after the completion of development phase  to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) it seems on time accomplishment of  optimal design and exploration EOR projects will faced by the measures taken by the contractor in the past. Study of the conceptual model of new Iranian Buy-Back contracts is presented to that an important part of structural problems of old buyback contract is considered. Flexibility in the design and implementation development models of reservoir, using the latest data available (the possibility of phasing development), flexible financial model and operational (annual capital budget, the possibility of repayment of all capital costs) and reward model based on production profile from the reservoir, which is the most important reforms as a prerequisite for the preservation of policy is considered. JEL Classification: M11,O13,Q35      }, Keywords = {"petroleum contract", "Iranian service contract", "optimal production policy"}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {181-213}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-841-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-841-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {Delangizan, Sohrab and Khanzadi, Azad and Heidarian, Maryam}, title = {Effect of fuel real prices on technology improvement and greenhouse gas emissions in the Iran road transportation sector}, abstract ={With the implementation of targeted subsidies and increasing energy carrier’s prices, is expected to reduce energy consumption in the transportion sector. Subject of fuel price change and energy carriers and thus increase the fuel real price compared to other factors of production; theoretically could lead to changing the behavior of fuels consumers towards the use of alternative technologies with higher efficiency and lower costs. It can be expected that by increase in the gasoline and diesel fuel real price, is taken pay more attention to motor fleet renewal and alternative fuels. For this purpose, in the present study, will be examined effects of the relative price changes of fuel (Gasoline and Diesel Fuel) on technology improving in sector Iran road transport during period 1991-2014 using Robust Least Squares method (RLS). Improving technology in road transport is divided into two groups; fuel technology (CNG consumption indicator) and engine technology (average age of the fleet). Since that technology advances should be aligned with economic and environmental conditions to be formed sustainable development. Therefore in this study, first measured effect of fuel prices on each of technology indicators, then effect of these indicators will be calculated on amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The obtained results of model estimate indicates confirmation of hypotheses proposed in this study. So that in fuel technology indicator, increasing fuel prices led to increasing CNG consumption and consequently increasing CNG consumption reduces greenhouse gas emissions. In engine technology indicator, increasing fuel prices in cars and buses sub-sectors led of decreased fleet longevity and this relationship in minibuses and trucks sub-sectors is inverse. Finally, increasing fleet longevity have positive and significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions per capita in each road sub-sectors.}, Keywords = { Fuel Price, Technology, Road Transportation, Robust Least Squares Method}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {215-246}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-661-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-661-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Strategies for Effective Participation of Iran in Gas Exporting Countries Forum}, abstract ={Because of recent events and trends in the global energy economy, natural gas is one of strategic goods and gas resource holders can use their gas to influence the global equations in favor. Formation of Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) that Iran had a major role in its establishment, is one of the most important international developments in the international arena in recent years. Despite of strength and advantage of GECF, however this forum is having some restrictions and problems for having efficient participation and also ruling the gas market. At this point the main question is that which policies and strategies must be taken by Iran to have effective role in this forum? This paper uses the analytical method based on Mattli's multivariate analysis model about the factors affecting organizational Economic Convergence, aiming to answer this question. Therefore, in this regard, the Islamic Republic of Iran while considering the constraints and possibilities must recognize the internal challenges of the forum and design required strategies for active participation in the forum. The results of this study indicate that the Iran's membership in Gas Exporting Countries Forum has both political and economic dimensions for this country. From Economic perspective, the revenue from gas sales increase Iran's foreign exchange revenues and from Political point of view, increased revenue from gas trade, will increase Iran's ability to pursue its foreign policy goals, which is increased global interdependence of Iran's energy supply and avoiding the re-impose of the sanctions against the country. In this regard, based on the information on the competitors strengths & weakness, the effective appropriate strategies are defined for Iran to reach the objective of being one of the most effective and influential members of GECF and player in the global gas market. JEL Classification: A10، D23، D42، E61  }, Keywords = {GECF, Iran, Policies and strategies, Gas Market, Russia, Qatar.}, volume = {12}, Number = {51}, pages = {247-289}, publisher = {IIES}, url = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-842-en.html}, eprint = {http://iiesj.ir/article-1-842-en.pdf}, journal = {Quarterly Energy Economics Review}, issn = {1735-1626}, eissn = {}, year = {2017} }