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Impulse Response Analysis of the Long Rum Effects of Oil Revenue and Exchange Rate shocks on Iran's Trade Deficit
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Mahbube Al-Sadat Amir Shakrami1   , Hossein Sharifi Renani *2 , Sara Ghobadi3 |
1- Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch
2- Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran , h.sharifi@khuisf.ac.ir
3- Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran |
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Abstract: (2260 Views) |
Impulse Response Analysis of the Long Rum Effects of Oil Revenue and Exchange Rate shocks on Iran's Trade Deficit
Mahbube Al-Sadat Amir Shakrami
PhD student in economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran, (mahboob.shahkarami@gmail.com)
Hossein Sharifi Renani
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran, (h.sharifi@khuisf.ac.ir)
Sara Ghobadi
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran, (sghobadi@iau.ac.ir)
Received: 2024/11/26 Accepted: 2025/01/13
Abstract 7
Trade deficit is a widely discussed topic in the world of economics and international trade, and it is the difference between the value of a country's total imports and its total exports. While some see the trade deficit as a negative phenomenon that indicates a country's inability to compete globally, others argue that it can be beneficial under certain circumstances. In general, the trade deficit is a complex issue with positive and negative consequences, and its impact on the economy of a country depends on various factors, including the size and duration of the budget deficit, as well as the overall health of the economy. Foreign trade plays a very important role in the economy of various countries, especially in developing countries. The foreign trade sector is one of the most important sectors of the economy, which affects other sectors and is also affected by them. Given the importance of the foreign sector and the country's trade balance, the aim of this study is to analyze and investigate the long run effects of shocks of oil revenues and exchange rates on Iran's trade deficit using seasonal data during the period 2014-2023 using the Impulse Response Function technique (IRF). The results showed that based on Johansen's estimate, the long run relationship in the model is based on GDP, which indicates the total supply. The IRF also revealed that the shock of oil revenues in the short, medium and long run has a negative and significant effect on the current account. Also, the exchange rate shock has a positive and significant effect on the current account in the short, medium and long run.
JEL Classification: F19, F32.
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| Keywords: Impulse Response Analysis, Oil Revenue, Exchange Rate shocks, current account |
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Full-Text [PDF 743 kb]
(630 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) |
Subject:
Oil-Market
Received: 2024/11/26 | Accepted: 2025/01/13 | Published: 2025/09/1 | ePublished: 2025/09/1
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