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Investigating the threshold role of sanctions on the effect of oil revenues on liquidity in Iran: new evidence from the TSVAR model
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Soheil Roudari1   , Amirmansour Tehranchian2 , Seyed Hadi Arabi1 , Omid Ali Adeli *3 |
1- University of Qom
2- University of Mazandaran
3- University of Qom , oa.adeli@qom.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (2074 Views) |
In the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, for various reasons, Iran's economy has always been under the economic sanctions of the United States, the United Nations, or the European :union:, sometimes by the United States alone, and in some periods by all three. In the present research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the sanctions index through two paths of impact on the budget deficit and also the impact on the exchange rate and inflation on liquidity in the period of 1979-2020 has been investigated using the Threshold Structural Vector Autoregressive model (TSVAR). According to the research results, the threshold of sanctions growth through the path of exchange rate and inflation was 5.162 % and through the government budget deficit channel was 3.057%, which shows that the threshold of sanction growth in the exchange rate channel and inflation is greater. Also, the difference in the country's liquidity response to oil revenues is related to the sanctions threshold. Based on this, and to reduce the effects of exogenous oil shocks on liquidity, the stabilizing role of the National Development Fund should be considered along with the management of inflationary expectations.
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| Keywords: Sanctions, Budget Deficit, Exchange rate, Oil Revenues, TSVAR Model |
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Full-Text [PDF 2095 kb]
(509 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Energy Economic
Received: 2022/08/9 | Accepted: 2023/02/7 | Published: 2023/05/31 | ePublished: 2023/05/31
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