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Showing 3 results for BABAEI
Hassan Heidari, Saharnaz Babaei-Balderlou,
Volume 10, Issue 41 (Summer-1393 2014)
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of the crude oil price uncertainty on the growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran over the period of 1367:1 to 1389:4. We applied Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) Model to generate the crude oil price uncertainty indicator, and MSIA(3)-ARX(4,2) Model to examine the effects of this uncertainty on the Industry and Mine sector growth. Our Results show that crude oil price uncertainty in different regimes of industry and mine sector (recession, average growth and expansion) have a negative impact on this sector. Also, it is shown that under the influence of crude oil price uncertainty, duration of average growth is more than recession regime and it is more than expansion regime, respectively. In general, in the case of uncertainty in the crude oil price, Industry and Mine sector growth is disposed to average growth and persistence of this situation. It is suggested to control the effects of oil price uncertainty on economy by changing macroeconomic policies, creating a saving found for oil revenues, and applying rules for withdrawals from the fund in average growth periods, especially when there is a continuous increase in crude oil price. So oil price increases will be eliminated as a factor of recession and lower growth, and then the average growth regime in Industry and Mine sector will pass to expansion regime with the probability of 15% - calculated in this study.
Mr Faraz Khanbabaei, Phd Kiumars Shahbazi,
Volume 18, Issue 73 (Summer 1401 2022)
Abstract
The oil price and the real effective exchange rate (REER) are two important variables affecting OPEC countries politics and economy. Despite the fact that the existing theoretical literature confirms the relationship between oil price and the exchange rate (Dollar), there is no consensus about the direction of causality between these two variable. Also, statistical data shows that there is a synchronization between oil price changes and exchange rate. According to the existing literature and empirical literature, the question is whether there is a relationship between the price of OPEC crude oil and the real effective exchange rate in these countries. This research uses OPEC monthly data for the period of 01: 2003 to 11: 2017 and the AECM approach to examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate in OPEC member countries and OPEC oil prices. To this end, the TAR and MTAR models have been used to examine the asymmetric cointegration effects between variables. Multiple structural breaks were also considered as dummy variables in the DOLS model to determine the long-term relationship. According to the findings of this study, there is a cointegration between variables and this cointegration has been confirmed in symmetric and asymmetric states. Dollar is weakly exogenous and the long- run relationship between the REER and oil prices is negative and asymmetric, but in the short run there is no relationship between these two variables.
JEL Classification: C2, C5, F3, F4
Keywords: Oil Prices, REER, Asymmetric Cointegration.
Mr. Ali Ahmad Yarmohammadi, Dr. Reza Arjmandi, Dr. Nabi Allah Mansouri, Dr. Farzam Babaei,
Volume 18, Issue 74 (Fall 1401 2022)
Abstract
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission due to the fossil fuels combustion in the world's manufacturing industries with a share of 30% of emission is considered as one of the important potentials for GHG emission reduction. In this study, using the logarithmic mean of Division index (LMDI) method, in combination with Kaya model, the factors affecting the emissions of Iranian manufacturing industries, including activity factors, industry structure, energy intensity, fuel composition and emission coefficient during the years 1378 to 1398 is identified and studied. According to the results, the effects of the level of industrial activity is the most important drivers for emissions in the industries of manufacturing factories, so that the amount of emissions has increased from 33.22 million tons in 1378 to 67.35 million tons in 1398. The drivers of the industrial structure acted in the opposite direction and decreased from -3.85 million tons in 1999 to -29.73 million tons. Also, greenhouse gas emission in chemical and petrochemical industries, cement factories and non-ferrous metal products increased by 60.38, 55.29 and 37.9 million tons, respectively. Changes in greenhouse gas emission in the oil and coal refining industries have also been almost constant during the period of this study.
JEL Classification: Q51, Q52, Q54, Q56.
Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse gases, Emission in industries, Index analysis method, LMDI method.
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