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A Study of the Shale Gas Production Effect on Anticipating the Foreign Exchange Earnings of Iran Gas Export Using the Econometrics Method and Dynamic System
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Alireza Abaspour chahardeh1   , Majid Delavari * 2, Masoud Babakhani3 |
1- KarajBranch,Islamic Azad University
2- KarajBranch,Islamic Azad University , mjd_delavari@yahoo.com
3- Iran Science and TechnologyUniversity |
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Abstract: (3648 Views) |
Using natural gas is known as a clean energy resource and apart from environmental aspect, it is economically and politically of great importance so that countries having conventional and unconventional gas resources have increased investment in novel tech developments especially in unconventional ones. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of shale gas production on the gas price in the period of 1991 to 2017 and also predicting Iran's foreign exchange income from gas exportation during the years 1396 to 1399. To do this, U.S Henry Hub gas price variables, Germany and Japan gas prices in addition to shale gas production in the form of econometrics are used and to predict the price a combination of wavelet transform and artificial neural network with dynamic system is employed.. Considering the results and evaluating the foreign exchange incomes from gas exportations in different scenarios between 2017 to 2020, Iran's best way to export gas is through pipe lines in its zone and expediting investments in transforming the natural gas to Gas To Liquids (GTL), according to the available facilities and technologies and production capacity in the country.
JEL Classification:C01,C63,D42,N70,Q41
Keywords: ShaleGas, Econometrics, GasExportation, DynamicSystem, Wavelet Transform, Neural Network |
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| Keywords: ShaleGas, Econometrics, GasExportation, DynamicSystem, Wavelet Transform, Neural Network. |
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Full-Text [PDF 630 kb]
(1369 Downloads)
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Type of Study: paper |
Subject:
Energy Economic
Received: 2018/09/9 | Accepted: 2019/01/2 | Published: 2019/06/15 | ePublished: 2019/06/15
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