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Analysis of periodic changes in Russia's behavior in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum by Markov Switching approach
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Eshagh Qasemi1   , Yaghoub Andayesh * 2, Amir Hossein Montazer Hojat3 |
1- Ph.D Candidate, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2- Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran , andayesh230@scu.ac.ir
3- Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran |
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Abstract: (489 Views) |
Investigating the behavior of the main gas producers due to the increasing importance of this fossil fuel is one of the most significant issues of energy importing and exporting countries. The emergence of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum as the main player in the global gas market gives importance to the analysis of changes in the members’ behavior of this forum including Russia due to the extra capacity in production. In this article, the behavior of Russia in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum is analyzed by using Markov Switching model and monthly data from 2008 to 2022. The results showed that the pattern of Russia's behavior in the forum does not fluctuate between competitive and collusion regimes over time. so that Russia's behavior in the first regime has been non-competitive and based on the pattern of "partial market sharing" and the Second regime it's behavior has been non-competitive based on the pattern of " Market Sharing and Price Making ". And Russia's behavior in both regimes has been non-competitive. On tne other hand the results showed that Russia's average stay length in the first regime is 18/19 months and in the second one is 27/15 months.
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| Keywords: GECF, collusion, competition, Markov Switching |
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Full-Text [PDF 4936 kb]
(167 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
OPEC,APEC,IEA,
Received: 2024/01/6 | Accepted: 2024/07/31 | Published: 2024/07/31 | ePublished: 2024/07/31
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