|
Financial Risks and Economic Resilience in Iran’s Petrochemical Industry
|
Fatemeh Mazaheri   , Farzad Karimi *1 , Saeed Aghasi |
| 1- , farzadkarimi0110@gmail.com |
|
|
Abstract: (47 Views) |
This study investigates the short-term and long-term effects of systematic risks risks arising from macroeconomic, political, and global factors that impact the entire market and unsystematic risks industry- or firm-specific risks such as supply failures, human errors, or technical problems on economic resilience, defined as the capacity of an economic system, in Iran’s chemical and petrochemical industries. The study covers the period from April 2001 to July 2023. The statistical population includes the country’s oil, petrochemical, and chemical industries. Based on theoretical and empirical foundations, 102 risks affecting the supply chain of these industries were identified. To analyses the data, the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method was employed to determine the risks influencing the resilience of these industries. Using a weighted averaging approach, 10 unsystematic risks and 6 systematic risks were identified as key factors affecting the economic resilience of the selected industries. The results of the TVP-FAVAR model indicate that both systematic and unsystematic risks have a negative short-term impact on the economic resilience of these sectors. Furthermore, the model reveals that these risks also exert a significant and negative influence in the long run.
JEL Classification: G32, L65, P45.
Keywords: Chain Economic Resilience, Systematic Risk, Unsystematic Risk, Petrochemical Industry, Oil Industry, Chemical Industry, Bayesian Model.
|
|
| Keywords: JEL Classification: G32, L65, P45.
Chain Economic Resilience, Systematic Risk, Unsystematic Risk, Petrochemical Industry, Oil Industry, Chemical Industry, Bayesian Model. |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 1516 kb]
(38 Downloads)
|
Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) |
Subject:
Energy Economic
Received: 2025/04/14 | Accepted: 2025/06/1 | Published: 2025/12/31 | ePublished: 2025/12/31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
