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Electricity Price Forecasting in Spot and Futures Electricity Sales Markets with a Nonlinear Model
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Arash Jalebi *1   , Mahmood Khodam , Hossein Mohammadnejad |
| 1- , eco2015th@gmail.com |
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Abstract: (16 Views) |
The general perception of the electricity industry and its tariffs is based on a tariff system with fixed and step rates that is more prominent and of interest from the distribution and consumer perspective. This view is due to the lack of awareness of the existence of a competitive electricity market. In fact, electricity prices do not have a fixed tariff structure, which means that such a rate is not meaningful for the actors in this field at least. With the start of electricity markets in Iran and the world, the behavior of electricity market prices has been more affected by the inherent nature of electricity production and consumption. The aim of this paper was to forecast electricity prices in spot and futures markets and design an optimal electricity sales model in the aforementioned markets using the Smooth Transition Regression (STR) approach. For this purpose, daily data in the period 2019-2023 was used. The Smooth Transition Regression nonlinear model was used to make the forecast. The results showed that the use of the aforementioned nonlinear model had a high ability and power in predicting electricity prices.
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| Keywords: JEL Classification: K22, L33, M10, C30.
Electricity price, forecast, spot market, forward market, copula function. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1279 kb]
(19 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) |
Subject:
Energy Economic
Received: 2025/02/1 | Accepted: 2025/09/21 | Published: 2025/12/31 | ePublished: 2025/12/31
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