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:: Volume 16, Issue 64 (Spring 1399 2020) ::
QEER 2020, 16(64): 125-149 Back to browse issues page
Modeling Gasoline Consumption Behaviors in Iran Based on Long Memory and Regime Change
Moslem Ansarinasab *1, Zahra Manzari Tavakoli2
1- Valie Asr University , moslem_albu@yahoo.com
2- Valie Asr University
Abstract:   (150 Views)
In this study, for the first time, we model gasoline consumption behavior in Iran using the long-term memory model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and non-linear Markov-Switching regime change model. Initially, the long-term memory feature of the ARFIMA model is investigated using the data from 1927 to 2017. The results indicate that the time series studied has a long-term memory. Therefore, after this step and determining the autoregressive lag (AR) and moving average (MA) values, the demand for gasoline in the Iranian economy is estimated using ARFIMA model (1.0.28.2). We also estimate gasoline consumption in Iran using Markov-Switching model, with the MSH model based on the lowest Akaike with 3 regimes and 2 lags. Finally, for modeling gasoline consumption behaviors, the Markov-switching model based is superior to the ARFIMA model.  Our findings indicate that if we do not use the most appropriate model for estimating future demand for gasoline, policy making in this area will not be optimal.
Keywords: Long-term memory, Regime change pattern, Modeling gasoline consumption.
JEL Classification: C53, Q47, C58 ,Q41
 
Keywords: long-term memory, regime change pattern, predict, gasoline demand.
Full-Text [PDF 978 kb]   (62 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Energy Economic
Received: 2019/04/18 | Accepted: 2020/06/8 | Published: 2020/06/8 | ePublished: 2020/06/8
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ansarinasab M, Manzari Tavakoli Z. Modeling Gasoline Consumption Behaviors in Iran Based on Long Memory and Regime Change. QEER. 2020; 16 (64) :125-149
URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-1145-en.html


Volume 16, Issue 64 (Spring 1399 2020) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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