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:: Volume 10, Issue 41 (Summer-1393 2014) ::
QEER 2014, 10(41): 175-193 Back to browse issues page
Improved Forecasting electricity demand using Taguchi experimental design
Ali Morovati sharif abadi1 , Mehdi Hatami manesh * 2, Ali mohammad Banifatemeh1 , Mahnaz Keshavarz1
1- Yazd University
2- Yazd University , mehdihatami66@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (7102 Views)

A good demand forecasting is an essential prerequisite to manage an electricity system. Over the years, many forecasting techniques of varying capabilities have been introduced. The precise extent of their influences, and the interactions between them, has never been fully clarified, although various forecasting factors have been explored in previous studies. Accordingly, this study adopts the Taguchi method to calibrate the controllable factors of a forecasting model. To this end an L9(34) inner orthogonal array is constructed for the controllable factors of data period, horizon length, and number of observations required. An experimental design is then performed to establish the appropriate levels for each factor. At the same time, an L4(23) outer orthogonal array is used to consider the inherited parameters of forecasting method as the noise factors of Taguchi method simultaneously. Through an eight steps pattern and using electricity data of Yazd province it is shown that the proposed model will improve quality of forecast and will reduce its expenses.

Keywords: electricity demand, Improved Forecasting, Taguchi experimental design, Artificial Neural Network
Full-Text [PDF 439 kb]   (2165 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: اقتصادبرق و مهندسي برق-مهندسي
Received: 2013/05/15 | Accepted: 2014/01/26 | Published: 2014/11/11 | ePublished: 2014/11/11
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morovati sharif abadi A, hatami manesh M, banifatemeh A M, keshavarz M. Improved Forecasting electricity demand using Taguchi experimental design. QEER 2014; 10 (41) :175-193
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Volume 10, Issue 41 (Summer-1393 2014) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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