1- IIES , jalaldehnavi@yahoo.com 2- IIES 3- University of Tehran
Abstract: (6428 Views)
China, the world's largest energy consumer and the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter is at present the most important country in shaping a new international energy landscape. China's current energy demand and its potential for economic growth mean that any change in its energy policy can dramatically affect the trajectory of the energy markets and would have a considerable effect on world's CO2 emissions: a noise caused by China may lead to news in markets. This study investigates China’s energy strategy and tries to explore its effect on natural gas usage, primary energy mix (PEM), and CO2 emissions. Besides, an econometrics technique presents to forecast China’s CO2 emissions over the period 2012-2020. Analysis indicates that reducing energy and carbon intensity are two key features of China's energy strategy (World Energy Outlook, 2011). Hence, natural gas, nuclear and renewable energies will be aggressively encouraged and those shares in PEM will increase remarkably over the next decades. Forecasts indicate the usage of fossil fuels will be increasing in step with high economic growth in China. In addition China will rely more on unconventional natural gas and more specifically shale gas that are more pollutant than conventional gas. Consequently, the total amount of CO2 emissions by China, instead of forecasted changes in its PEM, will not just decrease but also will increase constantly.
Dehnavi J, Jokar M S, Fadaee A, Rahimi G A. Second Shale Gas Revolution in China: Investigating China Strategy in Gas Market. QEER 2015; 10 (43) :105-128 URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-138-en.html