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Modeling policy scenarios of energy intensity forecasting in mineral products after price liberalization of energy carriers
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Sanaz Shahbazi *1   , Hassan Heidari2 , Mahdi Nejati3 , Ali Emami Meibodi4 |
1- Urmia University , s.shahbazi@urmia.ac.ir
2- Urmia University
3- Shahid Bahonar University
4- Allameh Tabatabai University |
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Abstract: (595 Views) |
| This study examines the effect of energy price changes on the intensity of energy consumption in mineral products using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model with calibrated data, to simulate two scenarios (1.%5 price shock to natural gas 2.%5 oil price shock) until the time horizon of 2050, for three groups of regions and countries (Iran, Major trading partners, Rest of World) has been investigated. The simulation results of the DCGE model for Iran in the first scenario suggest a continuous improvement in energy efficiency, where the energy intensity values remain negative in general, the second scenario depicts a temporary increase in energy intensity for Iran, followed by a gradual decrease. which shows the increase in the energy sector of mineral products in the near future. Trade partners and other regions show a sharper reduction in energy intensity under the second scenario with faster rates of decline and more ambitious targets for energy efficiency. Based on the obtained results, it can be said that Iran is becoming more efficient in terms of energy consumption for the production of mineral products, which can be caused by various factors such as technological advances, improvement of production processes be which is running. |
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| Keywords: Energy price changes, Energy intensity, Mineral products, Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1453 kb]
(207 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) |
Subject:
حامل هاي انرژي-يارانه ها
Received: 2024/07/7 | Accepted: 2024/10/1 | Published: 2024/10/1 | ePublished: 2024/10/1
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