1- Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran , Sajadrajabi@isu.ac.ir 2- , University of Tehran and Researcher of Tadbir Economic Research Institute, Tehran 3- Faculty of Economics, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran 4- Econimics National Defense University, Tehran
Abstract: (37 Views)
With the increase in population and economic growth of countries, the role of electricity is expanding. Therefore, estimating the economic costs of electricity shortages leads to very important achievements for the actors of this industry, i.e. distributors, decision makers, and governments. The purpose of this article is to estimate the final cost using the method of Chen and Vela in the form of a standard model that according to an optimization model, less damage to Iran's economy is planned and energy can be controlled in maintaining the security of Iran's security. This method is used to calculate the average economic result of short-term electricity shortage in different sectors of Iran's economy. In other words, this research seeks to find out that in the event of a shortage of electricity, each of the economic sectors will face outages in order and to what extent. The results show that the final cost of not providing electricity is between 7.5 and 3702 Rial per kilowatt hour. This result depends on things such as the percentage of shortage in each sector, the level of final demand and their dependence on the electricity industry. Based on this, in a situation where dispatching is forced to shut down electricity in the country, in order to maximize the economic security factor, shutdown should be planned first for the household sector and then for the coal sector and veterinary activities, which have added value coefficients of 0.16 and 0.91.
JEL Classification: L52, P48, Q43.
Keywords: economic security, marginal cost, input-output analysis, power outage, supply side, power shortage.
Rajabi S, Shokouh H, Ranjbaran R, Parpanchi S M. Designing a model to maintain the stability of Iran's economic security in the condition of electricity shortage: the application of integrated input-output linear programming model. QEER 2025; 21 (84) :199-234 URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-1643-en.html