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Effect of financial markets on regional gas prices
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Abstract: (223 Views) |
Gas is one of the most important fossil fuels and it is expected to take the place of oil in the energy consumption market with the continuation of the existing conditions in the horizon of 2040. Due to the importance of this product, in this research, an image of the important gas markets of the world has been presented and the role of financial markets on the cash price of gas has been investigated in the three markets of Henry Hub, Europe and London. In this research, daily data was used from January 1993 to April 2023. The Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, and vector error correction model were used to analyze the data. The results of the research showed that the Henry Hub gas market has a high pricing power compared to the European and London markets; Also, the price of gas in the European market can to some extent affect the determination of the cash price of gas in the London market; But the price of gas in the London market is determined by other markets and this market is generally affordable. Also, the findings of the research show that at the 95% confidence level, the American capital market index has a negative effect on the cash price of gas in all three regional markets in the long term, which is statistically significant in the European and London markets. In addition, in the short term, the American capital market index has a positive effect on the cash price of gas in the Henry Hub market, but its effect on the cash price of gas in the other two markets is negative. The findings of the research indicate that in the long term, the American interest rate has not had a significant effect on the cash price of gas in any of the investigated markets; however, in the short term, this variable has a negative and significant effect on the cash price of gas in the hub art market and Europe.
Keywords: Gas price, financial market, vector autoregression model, regional markets
JEL Classification: Q48, D42, G15
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| Keywords: Gas price, financial market, vector autoregression model, regional markets
JEL Classification: Q48, D42, G15 |
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Full-Text [PDF 2549 kb]
(128 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Oil-Market
Received: 2024/07/3 | Accepted: 2024/11/9 | Published: 2024/12/30 | ePublished: 2024/12/30
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