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Exploring the key uncertainties facing the future of LNG trade: "Expert insights and scenarios for the 2050 "
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Fatemeh Rajabi Safiri *1   , Abdolrasoul Ghasemi2 , Mehryar Dashab3 , Seyed reza Mousavinia4 |
1- , Faculty of Law and Political Sciences Allameh Tabataba'i University , rajabisafiri@gmail.com
2- Department of Energy Economics, Economics Allameh Tabataba'i University
3- Department of Public and International Law, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences Allameh Tabataba'i
4- International Relations Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences Allameh Tabataba'i University |
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Abstract: (18 Views) |
The future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade faces profound geopolitical and structural uncertainties by the horizon2050. This study employs an exploratory mixed-method and scenario planning methodology based on insights from 14 international experts. First, 40 influencing factors were identified through a systematic literature review and classified within the STEEPV framework. Using a Likert-scale questionnaire, the importance and likelihood of each factor were evaluated, and a consensus index was calculated. Subsequently, a cross-impact analysis was conducted using MICMAC software. The findings reveal that "NATO-Russia relations" and "security of energy supply" (with emphasis on the Strait of Hormuz and potential fragmentation within NATO) are the two most critical uncertainties shaping the future of LNG trade. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios were developed: "Sustainable Peace," "Resource Scarcity Crisis," "The Boom of Renewables," and "A World on Fire." The research innovates by identifying the potential for internal NATO divergence and the vital role of the Strait of Hormuz for LNG.
JEL Classification: Q47, F17, O13,Q35, Q34.
Keywords: LNG Trade, Energy Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Energy Security, Strait of Hormuz, NATO-Russia Relations.
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| Keywords: JEL Classification: Q47, F17, O13, Q35, Q34.
LNG Trade, Energy Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Energy Security, Strait of Hormuz, NATO-Russia Relations. |
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Full-Text [PDF 865 kb]
(19 Downloads)
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Type of Study: paper |
Subject:
LNG-GTL
Received: 2026/01/5 | Accepted: 2026/05/20 | Published: 2026/10/2 | ePublished: 2026/10/2
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