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:: Volume 13, Issue 55 (Winter 1396 2018) ::
QEER 2018, 13(55): 1-38 Back to browse issues page
Multi-scenario Simulation of Shale Oil Production Using System Dynamics Approach
Mohammad Fazlollahtabar Mr, Babak Shirazi Dr. 1, Ahmad Jafari Samimi Dr.
1- , shirazi_b@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (951 Views)

The North American oil production surge led by US shale oil, has produced a global supply shock and the effects of it's continued growth will cascade through the global oil market. This paper attempts to find out the future trend of US shale oil production and analyze that, with regard to technological, economic, and geological factors, using system dynamics approach. The proposed model is used to analyze US shale oil peak and market shares, up to 2035, under different price, resource and technology scenarios. The results show that US shale oil peaks around 2025, and it's rate ranges from 8.51 to 30.71 MB/day, which is 8–30 percent of total oil demand. Simulation results reveal that US shale oil can't be a major source for the market in the long run unless by increasing oil recovery factor.

Keywords: Tight Oil, System Dynamics, Oil Production Forecast, Unconventional Oil
Full-Text [PDF 1047 kb]   (499 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Oil-Market
Received: 2017/03/14 | Accepted: 2017/10/21 | Published: 2018/03/19
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Fazlollahtabar M, Shirazi B, Jafari Samimi A. Multi-scenario Simulation of Shale Oil Production Using System Dynamics Approach. QEER. 2018; 13 (55) :1-38
URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-835-en.html


Volume 13, Issue 55 (Winter 1396 2018) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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