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Estimation and Prediction of Jet Fuel Demand in Global Air Transportation
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Abstract: (4988 Views) |
Given the crucial role of the global air transportation sector for World growth, this paper attempts to forecast the related demand for jet fuel up to 2030 at the global level and for each of the 10 regions, taking into account forecasts of global air traffic and jet fuel efficiency. We estimate the demand based on four different scenarios, using econometric approaches and the SURE model. Our results indicate that increase in demand for jet fuel will fall somewhere between a minimum of 25% and a maximum of 47%, reaching anywhere between a low of 232.2 million tons to a high of 284.4 million tons in 2030.
JEL Classification: R41, C01
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| Keywords: jet fuel demand, fuel efficiency, weight-load-factor, Partial Adjustment Model, dynamic panel data |
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Full-Text [PDF 725 kb]
(1445 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Energy Economic
Received: 2017/06/24 | Accepted: 2017/06/24 | Published: 2017/06/24 | ePublished: 2017/06/24
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