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:: Volume 15, Issue 61 (Summer 1398 2019) ::
QEER 2019, 15(61): 1-28 Back to browse issues page
Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization
Hooshmand Hashemi1 , Taimor Mohamadi * 2
1- azad eslami university
2- Allame university , atmahamadi@gmail.com
Abstract:   (3335 Views)
The purpose of this paper is to estimate oil products demand by the state-space model, taking into account the implications for price liberalization using the Kalman filter technique in the framework of a time-varying pattern. For this purpose, we use the data of the Energy Balance Sheet and the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company during the period of 1994-2017. Our model results indicate that the price elasticity of oil products varies during the studied period.   Using three different scenarios, we consistently find that a 10% annual increase in oil product prices during the sixth development plan, leads to a decrease in the consumption of kerosene and fuel oil, while gasoline and gas oil consumption increases.  We thus observe that while kerosene and fuel oil demand responds as expected to rising prices, the price sensitivity of demand for gasoline and gas oil declines.  We observe that while the absolute value of the price elasticity of gasoline has fallen unexpectedly, the price elasticity of kerosene, fuel oil and gas oil have increased. Therefore, in order to encourage gasoline consumers to reduce their demand, the speed of price liberalization at the end of the sixth development plan has to be more than at the beginning of the program. However, the rate of price increase for kerosene, gas oil and fuel oil products has to decrease at the end of the program.
Keywords: state-space model, Kalman filter technique, price liberalizations, time –varying parameter, oil products
Full-Text [PDF 1045 kb]   (1245 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) | Subject: Energy Economic
Received: 2018/04/6 | Accepted: 2019/03/13 | Published: 2019/09/1 | ePublished: 2019/09/1
گواهي پذيرش مقاله پيوست مي باشد [PDF 286 KB]  (121 Download)
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hashemi H, mohamadi T. Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization. QEER 2019; 15 (61) :1-28
URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-986-en.html


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Volume 15, Issue 61 (Summer 1398 2019) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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