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:: Volume 17, Issue 68 (Spring 1400 2021) ::
QEER 2021, 17(68): 1-23 Back to browse issues page
Total Electricity Demand Modeling: An Application of Spatial Panel Econometric Method
Mirhossein Mousavi * 1, Jalal Dehnavi , Elahe Shateri
1- , hmousavi@alzahra.ac.ir
Abstract:   (2260 Views)
This paper aims to model total electricity demand (incremental) in order to estimate price and income elasticities using provincial data and the spatial panel data method. Electricity demand at the province level is influenced by climatic zones, which can be divided into temperate, cold and sub-tropical. This paper uses time series data for electricity demand in Iran’s 28 provinces, taking into account climatic factors as well as income and price elasticities.  We use Elhorst methodology and likelihood-ratio test to compare spatial patterns in order to select the best method compatible with the theoretical model. The results indicate a  price elasticity of electricity demand (-0.08), cross elasticity of electricity demand (-0.6565), income elasticity (0.11) and elasticity of demand to temperature changes (1.9). In other words, electricity demand is minimally sensitive to changes in electricity prices and natural gas prices and income, but sensitive to changes in temperature (elastic). Our cross elasticities and income elasticity indicate that electricity and natural gas are substitutes for each other and can be considered essential goods based on their income elasticity.
JEL Classification: C23, Q47, Q41, C33
Keywords: Aggregation Demand, Electricity, Panel Data, Spatial Econometrics, Alhorst Methodology

 
Keywords: Aggregation Demand, Electricity, Panel Data, Spatial Econometrics, Alhorst Methodology
Full-Text [PDF 1754 kb]   (690 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Thesis(PhD.) | Subject: حامل هاي انرژي-يارانه ها
Received: 2020/06/6 | Accepted: 2021/02/1 | Published: 2021/05/31 | ePublished: 2021/05/31
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mousavi M, dehnavi J, shateri E. Total Electricity Demand Modeling: An Application of Spatial Panel Econometric Method. QEER 2021; 17 (68) :1-23
URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-1307-en.html


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Volume 17, Issue 68 (Spring 1400 2021) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی Quarterly Energy Economics Review
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